This market has closed
Trading ended on Mar 31, 2026. The prices below are the last ones before it closed and no longer update. Browse open markets
Odds by venue
Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.
Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 206 days ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.
- Polymarket
Anthropic0.1%0.1%— bid, 0.1¢ askpolled, 4947 h ago0.1¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $100,000 (1000x)Anthropic0.1%Polymarket 0.1%polled, 4947 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
- Contract
- Anthropic
- Last price
- 0.1%
- As of
- Polled 206 d ago
- Buy Yes
- 0.1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $100,000 (1000x)
- Volume
- $99K
Meituan0.1%0.1%— bid, 0.1¢ askpolled, 4947 h ago0.1¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $100,000 (1000x)Meituan0.1%Polymarket 0.1%polled, 4947 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
- Contract
- Meituan
- Last price
- 0.1%
- As of
- Polled 206 d ago
- Buy Yes
- 0.1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $100,000 (1000x)
- Volume
- $27K
Moonshot0.1%0.1%— bid, 0.1¢ askpolled, 4947 h ago0.1¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $100,000 (1000x)Moonshot0.1%Polymarket 0.1%polled, 4947 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
- Contract
- Moonshot
- Last price
- 0.1%
- As of
- Polled 206 d ago
- Buy Yes
- 0.1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $100,000 (1000x)
xAI0.1%0.1%— bid, 0.1¢ askpolled, 4947 h ago0.1¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $100,000 (1000x)xAI0.1%Polymarket 0.1%polled, 4947 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
- Contract
- xAI
- Last price
- 0.1%
- As of
- Polled 206 d ago
- Buy Yes
- 0.1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $100,000 (1000x)
- Volume
- $42K
Who resolves this market
- Polymarket resolves via:
- UMA optimistic oracle
How the odds have moved
The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.
- Anthropic
- Meituan
- Moonshot
About this market
Final prediction market prices for "Which company has the third best AI model end of March?". Anthropic last traded at 0.1%. Next is Meituan at 0.1%. $543K has traded across 4 outcomes on Polymarket. The market closed on Mar 31, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the third-highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on March 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market. If two models are tied for the third best arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g. if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No") The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Questions
What does the consensus price mean?
It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.
How is the payout worked out?
A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.
Why do the venues show different prices?
Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.
Is a price gap an arbitrage?
Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.
How fresh are these prices?
Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.
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