The Prediction Markets

Which country will report a higher 7-day COVID-19 case average per capita on January 12: France, Italy, USA or Spain?

Closed
Jan 14, 2022
Traded
$28K
Venues
Polymarket
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This market has closed

Trading ended on Jan 14, 2022. The prices below are the last ones before it closed and no longer update. Browse open markets

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

  • Polymarket

No outcome is trading right now. Check back when the venues reopen this market.

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: ourworldindata.org

About this market

Final prediction market prices for "Which country will report a higher 7-day COVID-19 case average per capita on January 12: France, Italy, USA or Spain?". $28K has traded across 0 outcomes on Polymarket. The market closed on Jan 14, 2022.

This is a market on whether France, Spain, Italy or the United States of America will report a higher 7-day COVID-19 case average per capita on January 12 2022. This market will resolve on data aggregated by Our World in Data, specifically, the 7-day rolling average of COVID-19 cases for France, Spain, Italy and the USA, with Metric "Confirmed Cases", Interval "7-day rolling average", and the Relative to Population checkbox checked, which is available at https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/coronavirus-data-explorer. This market will resolve to one of the aforementioned countries which, by the resolution source, has reported the highest 7-day case average per capita for January 12. The resolution source will be reviewed on January 14 2022 at 8 PM ET and - if the data for January 12 is not be available then - the most recent available data will be used. -------------------- OWiD dataset uses the most recent official numbers from governments and health ministries worldwide. Population estimates for per-capita metrics are based on the United Nations World Population Prospects. Here: https://github.com/owid/covid-19-data/tree/master/public/data one can find a detailed list of all our country-specific sources. Please note, if the highest averages per capita are the same for more than one country, the winning outcome shares will be valued adequately.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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