The Prediction Markets

Which Senate races will be within 5%?

Full timeKickoff Waiting for the venues to settle
Traded
$129K
Venues
Polymarket
Prices updated
45 min ago
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What the markets expect

Texas 75.5%

Next is Kansas at 70.5%. Only Polymarket lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 45 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
Texas
75.5%
Polymarket 75.5%polled, 45 min agoBest Yes 77¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $130 (1.30x)
Polymarket
Contract
Texas
Last price
75.5%
As of
Polled 45 min ago
Buy Yes
77¢
Sell Yes
74¢
$100 on Yes pays
$130 (1.30x)
Volume
$24K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kansas
70.5%
Polymarket 70.5%polled, 45 min agoBest Yes 73¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $137 (1.37x)
Polymarket
Contract
Kansas
Last price
70.5%
As of
Polled 45 min ago
Buy Yes
73¢
Sell Yes
68¢
$100 on Yes pays
$137 (1.37x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
Iowa
69%
Polymarket 69%polled, 45 min agoBest Yes 71¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $141 (1.41x)
Polymarket
Contract
Iowa
Last price
69%
As of
Polled 45 min ago
Buy Yes
71¢
Sell Yes
67¢
$100 on Yes pays
$141 (1.41x)
Volume
$12K
Trade this on Polymarket
Maine
66.5%
Polymarket 66.5%polled, 45 min agoBest Yes 68¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $147 (1.47x)
Polymarket
Contract
Maine
Last price
66.5%
As of
Polled 45 min ago
Buy Yes
68¢
Sell Yes
65¢
$100 on Yes pays
$147 (1.47x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Michigan
61%
Polymarket 61%polled, 45 min agoBest Yes 64¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $156 (1.56x)
Polymarket
Contract
Michigan
Last price
61%
As of
Polled 45 min ago
Buy Yes
64¢
Sell Yes
58¢
$100 on Yes pays
$156 (1.56x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Polymarket
Alaska
60.5%
Polymarket 60.5%polled, 45 min agoBest Yes 62¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $161 (1.61x)
Polymarket
Contract
Alaska
Last price
60.5%
As of
Polled 45 min ago
Buy Yes
62¢
Sell Yes
59¢
$100 on Yes pays
$161 (1.61x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Ohio (Special)
57.5%
Polymarket 57.5%polled, 45 min agoBest Yes 61¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $164 (1.64x)
Polymarket
Contract
Ohio (Special)
Last price
57.5%
As of
Polled 45 min ago
Buy Yes
61¢
Sell Yes
54¢
$100 on Yes pays
$164 (1.64x)
Volume
$9K
Trade this on Polymarket
South Carolina
50.5%
Polymarket 50.5%polled, 45 min agoBest Yes 52¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $192 (1.92x)
Polymarket
Contract
South Carolina
Last price
50.5%
As of
Polled 45 min ago
Buy Yes
52¢
Sell Yes
49¢
$100 on Yes pays
$192 (1.92x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Minnesota
49%
Polymarket 49%polled, 45 min agoBest Yes 50¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $200 (2.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
Minnesota
Last price
49%
As of
Polled 45 min ago
Buy Yes
50¢
Sell Yes
48¢
$100 on Yes pays
$200 (2.00x)
Volume
$13K
Trade this on Polymarket
Nebraska
48%
Polymarket 48%polled, 45 min agoBest Yes 58¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $172 (1.72x)
Polymarket
Contract
Nebraska
Last price
48%
As of
Polled 45 min ago
Buy Yes
58¢
Sell Yes
38¢
$100 on Yes pays
$172 (1.72x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
Show 9 more outcomes
Ohio (Special)
39%
Polymarket 39%polled, 45 min agoBest Yes 52¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $192 (1.92x)
Polymarket
Contract
Florida (Special)
Last price
39%
As of
Polled 45 min ago
Buy Yes
52¢
Sell Yes
26¢
$100 on Yes pays
$192 (1.92x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Polymarket
Mississippi
37.5%
Polymarket 37.5%polled, 45 min agoBest Yes 54¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $185 (1.85x)
Polymarket
Contract
Mississippi
Last price
37.5%
As of
Polled 45 min ago
Buy Yes
54¢
Sell Yes
21¢
$100 on Yes pays
$185 (1.85x)
Volume
$446
Trade this on Polymarket
Montana
35%
Polymarket 35%polled, 45 min agoBest Yes 54.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $182 (1.82x)
Polymarket
Contract
Montana
Last price
35%
As of
Polled 45 min ago
Buy Yes
54.9¢
Sell Yes
15¢
$100 on Yes pays
$182 (1.82x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
New Hampshire
34%
Polymarket 34%polled, 45 min agoBest Yes 35¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $286 (2.86x)
Polymarket
Contract
New Hampshire
Last price
34%
As of
Polled 45 min ago
Buy Yes
35¢
Sell Yes
33¢
$100 on Yes pays
$286 (2.86x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
North Carolina
13%
Polymarket 13%polled, 45 min agoBest Yes 15¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Polymarket
Contract
North Carolina
Last price
13%
As of
Polled 45 min ago
Buy Yes
15¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$667 (6.67x)
Volume
$9K
Trade this on Polymarket
Georgia
12%
Polymarket 12%polled, 45 min agoBest Yes 13¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Polymarket
Contract
Georgia
Last price
12%
As of
Polled 45 min ago
Buy Yes
13¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$769 (7.69x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
Virginia
3.8%
Polymarket 3.8%polled, 45 min agoBest Yes 5.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,786 (17.9x)
Polymarket
Contract
Virginia
Last price
3.8%
As of
Polled 45 min ago
Buy Yes
5.6¢
Sell Yes
1.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,786 (17.9x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
New Mexico
3.5%
Polymarket 3.5%polled, 45 min agoBest Yes 3.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,564 (25.6x)
Polymarket
Contract
New Mexico
Last price
3.5%
As of
Polled 45 min ago
Buy Yes
3.9¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,564 (25.6x)
Volume
$8K
Trade this on Polymarket
Colorado
2.9%
Polymarket 2.9%polled, 45 min agoBest Yes 4.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,326 (23.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Colorado
Last price
2.9%
As of
Polled 45 min ago
Buy Yes
4.3¢
Sell Yes
1.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,326 (23.3x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Texas
  • Kansas
  • Iowa

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
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Spread
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Best ask
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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Which Senate races will be within 5%?". Texas leads at 75.5%. Next is Kansas at 70.5%. $129K has traded across 19 outcomes on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 4, 2026.

The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 5% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined. The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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