The Prediction Markets

Who will appear in a 2027 Big Game commercial?

Closes
Feb 15, 2027, in 3 months
Traded
$2K
Venues
Polymarket
Prices updated
just now
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What the markets expect

Ben Affleck 77.5%

Next is Tom Brady at 76%. Only Polymarket lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
Ben Affleck
77.5%
Polymarket 77.5%polled, 15s agoBest Yes 78¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $128 (1.28x)
Polymarket
Contract
Ben Affleck
Last price
77.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
78¢
Sell Yes
77¢
$100 on Yes pays
$128 (1.28x)
Volume
$20
Trade this on Polymarket
Tom Brady
76%
Polymarket 76%polled, 15s agoBest Yes 80¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $125 (1.25x)
Polymarket
Contract
Tom Brady
Last price
76%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
80¢
Sell Yes
72¢
$100 on Yes pays
$125 (1.25x)
Volume
$20
Trade this on Polymarket
Peyton Manning
73.5%
Polymarket 73.5%polled, 15s agoBest Yes 74¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $135 (1.35x)
Polymarket
Contract
Peyton Manning
Last price
73.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
74¢
Sell Yes
73¢
$100 on Yes pays
$135 (1.35x)
Volume
$32
Trade this on Polymarket
Kevin Hart
72.5%
Polymarket 72.5%polled, 15s agoBest Yes 97¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Polymarket
Contract
Kevin Hart
Last price
72.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
97¢
Sell Yes
48¢
$100 on Yes pays
$103 (1.03x)
Volume
$60
Trade this on Polymarket
Matthew McConaughey
61.5%
Polymarket 61.5%polled, 15s agoBest Yes 62¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $161 (1.61x)
Polymarket
Contract
Matthew McConaughey
Last price
61.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
62¢
Sell Yes
61¢
$100 on Yes pays
$161 (1.61x)
Volume
$40
Trade this on Polymarket
Snoop Dogg
42.5%
Polymarket 42.5%polled, 15s agoBest Yes 43¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $233 (2.33x)
Polymarket
Contract
Snoop Dogg
Last price
42.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
43¢
Sell Yes
42¢
$100 on Yes pays
$233 (2.33x)
Volume
$20
Trade this on Polymarket
Sabrina Carpenter
41.5%
Polymarket 41.5%polled, 15s agoBest Yes 42¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $238 (2.38x)
Polymarket
Contract
Sabrina Carpenter
Last price
41.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
42¢
Sell Yes
41¢
$100 on Yes pays
$238 (2.38x)
Trade this on Polymarket
MrBeast
36%
Polymarket 36%polled, 15s agoBest Yes 37¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $270 (2.70x)
Polymarket
Contract
MrBeast
Last price
36%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
37¢
Sell Yes
35¢
$100 on Yes pays
$270 (2.70x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Jennifer Aniston
30.5%
Polymarket 30.5%polled, 15s agoBest Yes 31¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $323 (3.23x)
Polymarket
Contract
Jennifer Aniston
Last price
30.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
31¢
Sell Yes
30¢
$100 on Yes pays
$323 (3.23x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Ryan Reynolds
28.5%
Polymarket 28.5%polled, 15s agoBest Yes 29¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $345 (3.45x)
Polymarket
Contract
Ryan Reynolds
Last price
28.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
29¢
Sell Yes
28¢
$100 on Yes pays
$345 (3.45x)
Volume
$40
Trade this on Polymarket
Show 5 more outcomes
Travis Kelce
26.5%
Polymarket 26.5%polled, 15s agoBest Yes 30¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $333 (3.33x)
Polymarket
Contract
Travis Kelce
Last price
26.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
30¢
Sell Yes
23¢
$100 on Yes pays
$333 (3.33x)
Volume
$20
Trade this on Polymarket
Beyoncé
17.5%
Polymarket 17.5%polled, 15s agoBest Yes 18¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $556 (5.56x)
Polymarket
Contract
Beyoncé
Last price
17.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
18¢
Sell Yes
17¢
$100 on Yes pays
$556 (5.56x)
Volume
$381
Trade this on Polymarket
Shohei Ohtani
17.5%
Polymarket 17.5%polled, 15s agoBest Yes 18¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $556 (5.56x)
Polymarket
Contract
Shohei Ohtani
Last price
17.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
18¢
Sell Yes
17¢
$100 on Yes pays
$556 (5.56x)
Volume
$20
Trade this on Polymarket
Taylor Swift
8%
Polymarket 8%polled, 15s agoBest Yes 9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Polymarket
Contract
Taylor Swift
Last price
8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Volume
$743
Trade this on Polymarket
Elon Musk
6%
Polymarket 6%polled, 15s agoBest Yes 7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Elon Musk
Last price
6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$420
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Ben Affleck
  • Tom Brady
  • Peyton Manning

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

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Best bid
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Best ask
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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (culture rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Who will appear in a 2027 Big Game commercial?". Ben Affleck leads at 77.5%. Next is Tom Brady at 76%. $2K has traded across 15 outcomes on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Feb 15, 2027.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual appears in an advertisement during the national broadcast of Super Bowl LXI on ABC, scheduled for February 14, 2027, at 6:30 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” If this game is delayed or postponed past February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50. The advertisement must air between kickoff and the final whistle to qualify. The listed individual must appear in video form; voice-only appearances will not independently qualify. Archival footage, lookalikes, and AI-generated or digitally created likenesses will not count. The resolution source for this market is the National Broadcast of Super Bowl LXI on ABC, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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