The Prediction Markets

Who will be in the 2026 NFL Christmas Day halftime show?

Closes
Dec 26, 2026, in 43 days
Traded
$3K
Venues
Polymarket
Prices updated
just now
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What the markets expect

Adele 31.5%

Next is Mariah Carey at 25%. Only Polymarket lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
Adele
31.5%
Polymarket 31.5%polled, 15s agoBest Yes 32¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $313 (3.13x)
Polymarket
Contract
Adele
Last price
31.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
32¢
Sell Yes
31¢
$100 on Yes pays
$313 (3.13x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Mariah Carey
25%
Polymarket 25%polled, 15s agoBest Yes 26¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $385 (3.85x)
Polymarket
Contract
Mariah Carey
Last price
25%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
26¢
Sell Yes
24¢
$100 on Yes pays
$385 (3.85x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Sabrina Carpenter
24%
Polymarket 24%polled, 15s agoBest Yes 25¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $400 (4.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
Sabrina Carpenter
Last price
24%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
25¢
Sell Yes
23¢
$100 on Yes pays
$400 (4.00x)
Volume
$980
Trade this on Polymarket
Snoop Dogg
22.5%
Polymarket 22.5%polled, 15s agoBest Yes 23¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $435 (4.35x)
Polymarket
Contract
Snoop Dogg
Last price
22.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
23¢
Sell Yes
22¢
$100 on Yes pays
$435 (4.35x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Audrey Nuna
18%
Polymarket 18%polled, 15s agoBest Yes 19¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $526 (5.26x)
Polymarket
Contract
Audrey Nuna
Last price
18%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
19¢
Sell Yes
17¢
$100 on Yes pays
$526 (5.26x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Bruno Mars
17.5%
Polymarket 17.5%polled, 15s agoBest Yes 18¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $556 (5.56x)
Polymarket
Contract
Bruno Mars
Last price
17.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
18¢
Sell Yes
17¢
$100 on Yes pays
$556 (5.56x)
Trade this on Polymarket
EJAE
17.5%
Polymarket 17.5%polled, 15s agoBest Yes 18¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $556 (5.56x)
Polymarket
Contract
EJAE
Last price
17.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
18¢
Sell Yes
17¢
$100 on Yes pays
$556 (5.56x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Michael Bublé
17.5%
Polymarket 17.5%polled, 15s agoBest Yes 18¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $556 (5.56x)
Polymarket
Contract
Michael Bublé
Last price
17.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
18¢
Sell Yes
17¢
$100 on Yes pays
$556 (5.56x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Post Malone
17.5%
Polymarket 17.5%polled, 15s agoBest Yes 18¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $556 (5.56x)
Polymarket
Contract
Post Malone
Last price
17.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
18¢
Sell Yes
17¢
$100 on Yes pays
$556 (5.56x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Rei Ami
17.5%
Polymarket 17.5%polled, 15s agoBest Yes 18¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $556 (5.56x)
Polymarket
Contract
Rei Ami
Last price
17.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
18¢
Sell Yes
17¢
$100 on Yes pays
$556 (5.56x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Show 8 more outcomes
Lady Gaga
17%
Polymarket 17%polled, 15s agoBest Yes 18¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $556 (5.56x)
Polymarket
Contract
Lady Gaga
Last price
17%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
18¢
Sell Yes
16¢
$100 on Yes pays
$556 (5.56x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Lainey Wilson
17%
Polymarket 17%polled, 15s agoBest Yes 18¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $556 (5.56x)
Polymarket
Contract
Lainey Wilson
Last price
17%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
18¢
Sell Yes
16¢
$100 on Yes pays
$556 (5.56x)
Volume
$40
Trade this on Polymarket
Andrea Bocelli
16.5%
Polymarket 16.5%polled, 15s agoBest Yes 17¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $588 (5.88x)
Polymarket
Contract
Andrea Bocelli
Last price
16.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
17¢
Sell Yes
16¢
$100 on Yes pays
$588 (5.88x)
Volume
$20
Trade this on Polymarket
Beyoncé
16.5%
Polymarket 16.5%polled, 15s agoBest Yes 17¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $588 (5.88x)
Polymarket
Contract
Beyoncé
Last price
16.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
17¢
Sell Yes
16¢
$100 on Yes pays
$588 (5.88x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Kacey Musgraves
16.5%
Polymarket 16.5%polled, 15s agoBest Yes 17¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $588 (5.88x)
Polymarket
Contract
Kacey Musgraves
Last price
16.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
17¢
Sell Yes
16¢
$100 on Yes pays
$588 (5.88x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Kelly Clarkson
15.5%
Polymarket 15.5%polled, 15s agoBest Yes 16¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Polymarket
Contract
Kelly Clarkson
Last price
15.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
16¢
Sell Yes
15¢
$100 on Yes pays
$625 (6.25x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Taylor Swift
15.5%
Polymarket 15.5%polled, 15s agoBest Yes 16¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Polymarket
Contract
Taylor Swift
Last price
15.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
16¢
Sell Yes
15¢
$100 on Yes pays
$625 (6.25x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Martha Stewart
8%
Polymarket 8%polled, 15s agoBest Yes 9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Polymarket
Contract
Martha Stewart
Last price
8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Volume
$612
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Adele
  • Mariah Carey
  • Sabrina Carpenter

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (culture rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Who will be in the 2026 NFL Christmas Day halftime show?". Adele leads at 31.5%. Next is Mariah Carey at 25%. $3K has traded across 18 outcomes on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Dec 26, 2026.

Netflix's NFL Christmas Day games are scheduled to be played on December 25, 2026. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed person appears in a Netflix NFL Christmas Day Halftime Show. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A person will be considered to appear in a Netflix NFL Christmas Day Halftime Show if they appear live and in person on the official broadcast within one of the following areas: i) the field of play, including the end zones; ii) any surrounding field-level areas below the first level of stands, such as the sidelines, areas behind the end zones, and tunnels leading directly onto the field; or iii) any set, stage, rig, or platform built for the Halftime Show, wherever it stands in the stadium. No particular activity is required, and the length of the appearance does not impact resolution. The official broadcast refers to Netflix's primary telecast of its National Football League games played on December 25, 2026. A Halftime Show is the entertainment program staged at the stadium between the second and third quarters of a Netflix NFL Christmas Day game and presented in the official broadcast, from the start of the program to its conclusion. The following will not qualify absent an appearance in a Netflix NFL Christmas Day Halftime Show as defined above: attendance at a Netflix NFL Christmas Day game; an appearance on the official broadcast outside the designated areas, including in the stands, a suite, or another spectator area; an appearance before a Halftime Show begins or after it ends, including a rehearsal or soundcheck; or an appearance that is not live and in person, including a pre-recorded segment, a remote, satellite, holographic, or digitally projected appearance, or an artificial simulation or recreation of the listed person. If the official broadcast is unavailable for any period during a Halftime Show, an appearance occurring only during that period qualifies only if the NFL or Netflix releases video of the listed person appearing in the Halftime Show by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the game. Official video released by the NFL and Netflix includes video published later in the official broadcast, on their official website, application, streaming service, or official social media accounts. If the broadcast does not become unavailable during a Halftime Show, non-broadcast videos will not qualify for resolution. If no Netflix NFL Christmas Day Halftime Show takes place by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be the official broadcast of Netflix's NFL Christmas Day games; however, videos of the Netflix NFL Christmas Day Halftime Show released by Netflix and the NFL may also be used.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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