Combined depth · both venues
Loading both order books…
What the markets expect
Ian Buck 26.3%
Next is Colette Kress at 13.6%. The venues differ most on Nikesh Arora (Polymarket 0.2%, Kalshi 4%), a 3.9-point gap.
Odds by venue
Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.
2 of 59 prices are live from the exchange feeds; the rest come from our regular price polls, the oldest 46 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.
- Polymarket
- Kalshi
Outcome
Fair chance
Venue prices on a 0–100% scale
Polymarket
Kalshi
Best Yes price
Ian Buck26.3%29.5%25.7% fair29¢ bid, 30¢ asklive, 45 min ago32%26.7% fair30¢ bid, 32¢ asklive, 45 min ago30¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $333 (3.33x)Ian Buck26.3%Polymarket 29.5%(25.7% fair)live, 45 min agoKalshi 32%(26.7% fair)live, 45 min agoBest Yes 30¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $333 (3.33x)
Ian Buck
26.3%
29.5%
25.7% fair
29¢ bid, 30¢ ask
live, 45 min ago
32%
26.7% fair
30¢ bid, 32¢ ask
live, 45 min ago
30¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $333 (3.33x)
Ian Buck
26.3%
Polymarket 29.5%(25.7% fair)live, 45 min agoKalshi 32%(26.7% fair)live, 45 min agoBest Yes 30¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $333 (3.33x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Ian Buck
- Price
- 29.5%
- Fair, margin removed
- 25.7%
- As of
- Live feed, 45 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 30¢
- Sell Yes
- 29¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $333 (3.33x)
- Volume
- $149K
Kalshi
- Contract
- Ian Buck
- Price
- 32%
- Fair, margin removed
- 26.7%
- As of
- Live feed, 45 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 32¢
- Sell Yes
- 30¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $313 (3.13x)
- Volume
- $257K
Partial parity · AI-reviewed
Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.
Indicative only, prices are 45 min old: No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 30¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 30¢.
Colette Kress13.6%16.6%14.4% fair16.5¢ bid, 16.6¢ askpolled, 46 min ago16%13.4% fair14¢ bid, 16¢ askpolled, 46 min ago16¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $625 (6.25x)Colette Kress13.6%Polymarket 16.6%(14.4% fair)polled, 46 min agoKalshi 16%(13.4% fair)polled, 46 min agoBest Yes 16¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Colette Kress
13.6%
16.6%
14.4% fair
16.5¢ bid, 16.6¢ ask
polled, 46 min ago
16%
13.4% fair
14¢ bid, 16¢ ask
polled, 46 min ago
16¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Colette Kress
13.6%
Polymarket 16.6%(14.4% fair)polled, 46 min agoKalshi 16%(13.4% fair)polled, 46 min agoBest Yes 16¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Colette Kress
- Last price
- 16.6%
- Fair, margin removed
- 14.4%
- As of
- Polled 46 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 16.6¢
- Sell Yes
- 16.5¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $602 (6.02x)
- Volume
- $176K
Kalshi
- Contract
- Colette Kress
- Last price
- 16%
- Fair, margin removed
- 13.4%
- As of
- Polled 46 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 16¢
- Sell Yes
- 14¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $625 (6.25x)
- Volume
- $505K
Partial parity · AI-reviewed
Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.
Indicative only, prices are 46 min old: Buying on Kalshi at 16¢ and selling on Polymarket at 16.5¢ nets 50 bps before fees.
Rene Haas10.8%12.2%10.6% fair11.5¢ bid, 12.9¢ askpolled, 46 min ago13%10.9% fair12¢ bid, 13¢ askpolled, 46 min ago12.9¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $775 (7.75x)Rene Haas10.8%Polymarket 12.2%(10.6% fair)polled, 46 min agoKalshi 13%(10.9% fair)polled, 46 min agoBest Yes 12.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $775 (7.75x)
Rene Haas
10.8%
12.2%
10.6% fair
11.5¢ bid, 12.9¢ ask
polled, 46 min ago
13%
10.9% fair
12¢ bid, 13¢ ask
polled, 46 min ago
12.9¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $775 (7.75x)
Rene Haas
10.8%
Polymarket 12.2%(10.6% fair)polled, 46 min agoKalshi 13%(10.9% fair)polled, 46 min agoBest Yes 12.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $775 (7.75x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Rene Haas
- Last price
- 12.2%
- Fair, margin removed
- 10.6%
- As of
- Polled 46 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 12.9¢
- Sell Yes
- 11.5¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $775 (7.75x)
- Volume
- $11K
Kalshi
- Contract
- Rene Haas
- Last price
- 13%
- Fair, margin removed
- 10.9%
- As of
- Polled 46 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 13¢
- Sell Yes
- 12¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $769 (7.69x)
- Volume
- $64K
Partial parity · AI-reviewed
Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.
Indicative only, prices are 46 min old: No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 12¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 12.9¢.
Johny Srouji8.8%11.8%10.2% fair11.5¢ bid, 12¢ askpolled, 46 min ago10%8.3% fair9¢ bid, 10¢ askpolled, 46 min ago10¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)Johny Srouji8.8%Polymarket 11.8%(10.2% fair)polled, 46 min agoKalshi 10%(8.3% fair)polled, 46 min agoBest Yes 10¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Johny Srouji
8.8%
11.8%
10.2% fair
11.5¢ bid, 12¢ ask
polled, 46 min ago
10%
8.3% fair
9¢ bid, 10¢ ask
polled, 46 min ago
10¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Johny Srouji
8.8%
Polymarket 11.8%(10.2% fair)polled, 46 min agoKalshi 10%(8.3% fair)polled, 46 min agoBest Yes 10¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Johny Srouji
- Last price
- 11.8%
- Fair, margin removed
- 10.2%
- As of
- Polled 46 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 12¢
- Sell Yes
- 11.5¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $833 (8.33x)
- Volume
- $6K
Kalshi
- Contract
- Johny Srouji
- Last price
- 10%
- Fair, margin removed
- 8.3%
- As of
- Polled 46 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 10¢
- Sell Yes
- 9¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,000 (10.0x)
- Volume
- $60K
Partial parity · AI-reviewed
Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.
Indicative only, prices are 46 min old: Buying on Kalshi at 10¢ and selling on Polymarket at 11.5¢ nets 150 bps before fees.
Jensen Huang (No Change)3.7%4.3%3.7% fair4.2¢ bid, 4.3¢ askpolled, 46 min agoNot listed4.3¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $2,326 (23.3x)Jensen Huang (No Change)3.7%Polymarket 4.3%(3.7% fair)polled, 46 min agoBest Yes 4.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,326 (23.3x)
Jensen Huang (No Change)
3.7%
4.3%
3.7% fair
4.2¢ bid, 4.3¢ ask
polled, 46 min ago
Not listed
4.3¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $2,326 (23.3x)
Jensen Huang (No Change)
3.7%
Polymarket 4.3%(3.7% fair)polled, 46 min agoBest Yes 4.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,326 (23.3x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Jensen Huang (No Change)
- Last price
- 4.3%
- Fair, margin removed
- 3.7%
- As of
- Polled 46 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 4.3¢
- Sell Yes
- 4.2¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,326 (23.3x)
- Volume
- $242K
Jensen Huang3.3%Not listed4%3.3% fair3¢ bid, 4¢ askpolled, 46 min ago4¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)Jensen Huang3.3%Kalshi 4%(3.3% fair)polled, 46 min agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Jensen Huang
3.3%
Not listed
4%
3.3% fair
3¢ bid, 4¢ ask
polled, 46 min ago
4¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Jensen Huang
3.3%
Kalshi 4%(3.3% fair)polled, 46 min agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Jensen Huang
- Last price
- 4%
- Fair, margin removed
- 3.3%
- As of
- Polled 46 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 4¢
- Sell Yes
- 3¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,500 (25.0x)
- Volume
- $375K
Tim Cook2.9%4.5%3.9% fair4¢ bid, 5¢ askpolled, 46 min ago3%2¢ bid, 3¢ askpolled, 46 min ago3¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)Tim Cook2.9%Polymarket 4.5%(3.9% fair)polled, 46 min agoKalshi 3%polled, 46 min agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Tim Cook
2.9%
4.5%
3.9% fair
4¢ bid, 5¢ ask
polled, 46 min ago
3%
2¢ bid, 3¢ ask
polled, 46 min ago
3¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Tim Cook
2.9%
Polymarket 4.5%(3.9% fair)polled, 46 min agoKalshi 3%polled, 46 min agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Tim Cook
- Last price
- 4.5%
- Fair, margin removed
- 3.9%
- As of
- Polled 46 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 5¢
- Sell Yes
- 4¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,000 (20.0x)
- Volume
- $213K
Kalshi
- Contract
- Tim Cook
- Last price
- 3%
- As of
- Polled 46 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 3¢
- Sell Yes
- 2¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $3,333 (33.3x)
- Volume
- $524K
Partial parity · AI-reviewed
Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.
Indicative only, prices are 46 min old: Buying on Kalshi at 3¢ and selling on Polymarket at 4¢ nets 100 bps before fees.
Lisa Su2.5%3%2¢ bid, 3.9¢ askpolled, 46 min ago3%2¢ bid, 3¢ askpolled, 46 min ago3¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)Lisa Su2.5%Polymarket 3%polled, 46 min agoKalshi 3%polled, 46 min agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Lisa Su
2.5%
3%
2¢ bid, 3.9¢ ask
polled, 46 min ago
3%
2¢ bid, 3¢ ask
polled, 46 min ago
3¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Lisa Su
2.5%
Polymarket 3%polled, 46 min agoKalshi 3%polled, 46 min agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Lisa Su
- Last price
- 3%
- As of
- Polled 46 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 3.9¢
- Sell Yes
- 2¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,564 (25.6x)
- Volume
- $14K
Kalshi
- Contract
- Lisa Su
- Last price
- 3%
- As of
- Polled 46 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 3¢
- Sell Yes
- 2¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $3,333 (33.3x)
- Volume
- $69K
Partial parity · AI-reviewed
Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.
Indicative only, prices are 46 min old: No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 2¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 3¢.
Nikesh Arora2.5%0.2%0.1¢ bid, 0.2¢ askpolled, 46 min ago4%3.3% fair3¢ bid, 4¢ askpolled, 46 min ago0.2¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $50,000 (500x)Nikesh Arora2.5%Polymarket 0.2%polled, 46 min agoKalshi 4%(3.3% fair)polled, 46 min agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Nikesh Arora
2.5%
0.2%
0.1¢ bid, 0.2¢ ask
polled, 46 min ago
4%
3.3% fair
3¢ bid, 4¢ ask
polled, 46 min ago
0.2¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Nikesh Arora
2.5%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 46 min agoKalshi 4%(3.3% fair)polled, 46 min agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Nikesh Arora
- Last price
- 0.2%
- As of
- Polled 46 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 0.2¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $50,000 (500x)
- Volume
- $103
Kalshi
- Contract
- Nikesh Arora
- Last price
- 4%
- Fair, margin removed
- 3.3%
- As of
- Polled 46 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 4¢
- Sell Yes
- 3¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,500 (25.0x)
- Volume
- $58K
Partial parity · AI-reviewed
Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.
Indicative only, prices are 46 min old: Buying on Polymarket at 0.2¢ and selling on Kalshi at 3¢ nets 280 bps before fees.
Michael Kagan2.1%3.9%3.3% fair1.8¢ bid, 5.9¢ askpolled, 46 min ago2%1¢ bid, 2¢ askpolled, 46 min ago2¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)Michael Kagan2.1%Polymarket 3.9%(3.3% fair)polled, 46 min agoKalshi 2%polled, 46 min agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Michael Kagan
2.1%
3.9%
3.3% fair
1.8¢ bid, 5.9¢ ask
polled, 46 min ago
2%
1¢ bid, 2¢ ask
polled, 46 min ago
2¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Michael Kagan
2.1%
Polymarket 3.9%(3.3% fair)polled, 46 min agoKalshi 2%polled, 46 min agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Michael Kagan
- Last price
- 3.9%
- Fair, margin removed
- 3.3%
- As of
- Polled 46 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 5.9¢
- Sell Yes
- 1.8¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,695 (16.9x)
- Volume
- $11K
Kalshi
- Contract
- Michael Kagan
- Last price
- 2%
- As of
- Polled 46 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 2¢
- Sell Yes
- 1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $5,000 (50.0x)
- Volume
- $28K
Partial parity · AI-reviewed
Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.
Indicative only, prices are 46 min old: No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 1.8¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 2¢.
Show 26 more outcomesHide 26 outcomes
Jay Puri2%2.9%2.8¢ bid, 2.9¢ askpolled, 46 min ago2%1¢ bid, 2¢ askpolled, 46 min ago2¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)Jay Puri2%Polymarket 2.9%polled, 46 min agoKalshi 2%polled, 46 min agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Jay Puri
2%
2.9%
2.8¢ bid, 2.9¢ ask
polled, 46 min ago
2%
1¢ bid, 2¢ ask
polled, 46 min ago
2¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Jay Puri
2%
Polymarket 2.9%polled, 46 min agoKalshi 2%polled, 46 min agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Jay Puri
- Last price
- 2.9%
- As of
- Polled 46 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 2.9¢
- Sell Yes
- 2.8¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $3,448 (34.5x)
- Volume
- $17K
Kalshi
- Contract
- Jay Puri
- Last price
- 2%
- As of
- Polled 46 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 2¢
- Sell Yes
- 1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $5,000 (50.0x)
- Volume
- $25K
Partial parity · AI-reviewed
Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.
Indicative only, prices are 46 min old: Buying on Kalshi at 2¢ and selling on Polymarket at 2.8¢ nets 80 bps before fees.
Nick Parker1.3%0.2%0.1¢ bid, 0.3¢ askpolled, 46 min ago2%1¢ bid, 2¢ askpolled, 46 min ago0.3¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $33,333 (333x)Nick Parker1.3%Polymarket 0.2%polled, 46 min agoKalshi 2%polled, 46 min agoBest Yes 0.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $33,333 (333x)
Nick Parker
1.3%
0.2%
0.1¢ bid, 0.3¢ ask
polled, 46 min ago
2%
1¢ bid, 2¢ ask
polled, 46 min ago
0.3¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $33,333 (333x)
Nick Parker
1.3%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 46 min agoKalshi 2%polled, 46 min agoBest Yes 0.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $33,333 (333x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Nick Parker
- Last price
- 0.2%
- As of
- Polled 46 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 0.3¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $33,333 (333x)
- Volume
- $113
Kalshi
- Contract
- Nick Parker
- Last price
- 2%
- As of
- Polled 46 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 2¢
- Sell Yes
- 1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $5,000 (50.0x)
- Volume
- $6K
Partial parity · AI-reviewed
Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.
Indicative only, prices are 46 min old: Buying on Polymarket at 0.3¢ and selling on Kalshi at 1¢ nets 70 bps before fees.
Pat Gelsinger1.3%0.3%0.1¢ bid, 0.5¢ askpolled, 46 min ago2%1¢ bid, 2¢ askpolled, 46 min ago0.5¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $20,000 (200x)Pat Gelsinger1.3%Polymarket 0.3%polled, 46 min agoKalshi 2%polled, 46 min agoBest Yes 0.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $20,000 (200x)
Pat Gelsinger
1.3%
0.3%
0.1¢ bid, 0.5¢ ask
polled, 46 min ago
2%
1¢ bid, 2¢ ask
polled, 46 min ago
0.5¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $20,000 (200x)
Pat Gelsinger
1.3%
Polymarket 0.3%polled, 46 min agoKalshi 2%polled, 46 min agoBest Yes 0.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $20,000 (200x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Pat Gelsinger
- Last price
- 0.3%
- As of
- Polled 46 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 0.5¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $20,000 (200x)
- Volume
- $2K
Kalshi
- Contract
- Pat Gelsinger
- Last price
- 2%
- As of
- Polled 46 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 2¢
- Sell Yes
- 1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $5,000 (50.0x)
- Volume
- $19K
Partial parity · AI-reviewed
Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.
Indicative only, prices are 46 min old: Buying on Polymarket at 0.5¢ and selling on Kalshi at 1¢ nets 50 bps before fees.
Bill Dally1.2%1.7%0.4¢ bid, 3¢ askpolled, 46 min ago1%1¢ bid, 2¢ askpolled, 46 min ago2¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)Bill Dally1.2%Polymarket 1.7%polled, 46 min agoKalshi 1%polled, 46 min agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Bill Dally
1.2%
1.7%
0.4¢ bid, 3¢ ask
polled, 46 min ago
1%
1¢ bid, 2¢ ask
polled, 46 min ago
2¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Bill Dally
1.2%
Polymarket 1.7%polled, 46 min agoKalshi 1%polled, 46 min agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Bill Dally
- Last price
- 1.7%
- As of
- Polled 46 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 3¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.4¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $3,333 (33.3x)
- Volume
- $11K
Kalshi
- Contract
- Bill Dally
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled 46 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 2¢
- Sell Yes
- 1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $5,000 (50.0x)
- Volume
- $10K
Partial parity · AI-reviewed
Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.
Indicative only, prices are 46 min old: No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.4¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 2¢.
Eric Schmidt1.1%2.1%1.5¢ bid, 2.7¢ askpolled, 46 min ago1%1¢ bid, 2¢ askpolled, 46 min ago2¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)Eric Schmidt1.1%Polymarket 2.1%polled, 46 min agoKalshi 1%polled, 46 min agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Eric Schmidt
1.1%
2.1%
1.5¢ bid, 2.7¢ ask
polled, 46 min ago
1%
1¢ bid, 2¢ ask
polled, 46 min ago
2¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Eric Schmidt
1.1%
Polymarket 2.1%polled, 46 min agoKalshi 1%polled, 46 min agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Eric Schmidt
- Last price
- 2.1%
- As of
- Polled 46 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 2.7¢
- Sell Yes
- 1.5¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $3,704 (37.0x)
- Volume
- $4K
Kalshi
- Contract
- Eric Schmidt
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled 46 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 2¢
- Sell Yes
- 1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $5,000 (50.0x)
- Volume
- $27K
Partial parity · AI-reviewed
Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.
Indicative only, prices are 46 min old: No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 1.5¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 2¢.
Nico Caprez1%1.4%1.1¢ bid, 1.7¢ askpolled, 46 min ago1%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 46 min ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)Nico Caprez1%Polymarket 1.4%polled, 46 min agoKalshi 1%polled, 46 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Nico Caprez
1%
1.4%
1.1¢ bid, 1.7¢ ask
polled, 46 min ago
1%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 46 min ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Nico Caprez
1%
Polymarket 1.4%polled, 46 min agoKalshi 1%polled, 46 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Nico Caprez
- Last price
- 1.4%
- As of
- Polled 46 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 1.7¢
- Sell Yes
- 1.1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $5,882 (58.8x)
- Volume
- $15K
Kalshi
- Contract
- Nico Caprez
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled 46 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $16K
Partial parity · AI-reviewed
Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.
Indicative only, prices are 46 min old: Buying on Kalshi at 1¢ and selling on Polymarket at 1.1¢ nets 10 bps before fees.
Chris MalachowskyKalshi: “Chris A. Malachowsky”0.9%1.3%1.1¢ bid, 1.4¢ askpolled, 46 min ago1%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 46 min ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)Chris Malachowsky0.9%Polymarket 1.3%polled, 46 min agoKalshi 1%polled, 46 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Chris Malachowsky
Kalshi: “Chris A. Malachowsky”
0.9%
1.3%
1.1¢ bid, 1.4¢ ask
polled, 46 min ago
1%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 46 min ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Chris Malachowsky
0.9%
Polymarket 1.3%polled, 46 min agoKalshi 1%polled, 46 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Chris Malachowsky
- Last price
- 1.3%
- As of
- Polled 46 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 1.4¢
- Sell Yes
- 1.1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $7,143 (71.4x)
- Volume
- $5K
Kalshi
- Contract
- Chris A. Malachowsky
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled 46 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $16K
Partial parity · AI-reviewed
Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.
Indicative only, prices are 46 min old: Buying on Kalshi at 1¢ and selling on Polymarket at 1.1¢ nets 10 bps before fees.
Debora Shoquist0.9%1%0.4¢ bid, 1.6¢ askpolled, 46 min ago1%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 46 min ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)Debora Shoquist0.9%Polymarket 1%polled, 46 min agoKalshi 1%polled, 46 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Debora Shoquist
0.9%
1%
0.4¢ bid, 1.6¢ ask
polled, 46 min ago
1%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 46 min ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Debora Shoquist
0.9%
Polymarket 1%polled, 46 min agoKalshi 1%polled, 46 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Debora Shoquist
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled 46 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 1.6¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.4¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $6,250 (62.5x)
- Volume
- $3K
Kalshi
- Contract
- Debora Shoquist
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled 46 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $4K
Partial parity · AI-reviewed
Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.
Indicative only, prices are 46 min old: No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.4¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 1¢.
Madison Huang0.9%1.3%0.9¢ bid, 1.6¢ askpolled, 46 min ago1%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 46 min ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)Madison Huang0.9%Polymarket 1.3%polled, 46 min agoKalshi 1%polled, 46 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Madison Huang
0.9%
1.3%
0.9¢ bid, 1.6¢ ask
polled, 46 min ago
1%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 46 min ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Madison Huang
0.9%
Polymarket 1.3%polled, 46 min agoKalshi 1%polled, 46 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Madison Huang
- Last price
- 1.3%
- As of
- Polled 46 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 1.6¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.9¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $6,250 (62.5x)
- Volume
- $26K
Kalshi
- Contract
- Madison Huang
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled 46 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $65K
Partial parity · AI-reviewed
Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.
Indicative only, prices are 46 min old: No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.9¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 1¢.
Jonah Alben0.8%0.9%0.2¢ bid, 1.5¢ askpolled, 46 min ago1%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 46 min ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)Jonah Alben0.8%Polymarket 0.9%polled, 46 min agoKalshi 1%polled, 46 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Jonah Alben
0.8%
0.9%
0.2¢ bid, 1.5¢ ask
polled, 46 min ago
1%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 46 min ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Jonah Alben
0.8%
Polymarket 0.9%polled, 46 min agoKalshi 1%polled, 46 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Jonah Alben
- Last price
- 0.9%
- As of
- Polled 46 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 1.5¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.2¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $6,667 (66.7x)
- Volume
- $3K
Kalshi
- Contract
- Jonah Alben
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled 46 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $13K
Partial parity · AI-reviewed
Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.
Indicative only, prices are 46 min old: No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.2¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 1¢.
Spencer Huang0.8%0.5%0.4¢ bid, 0.6¢ askpolled, 46 min ago1%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 46 min ago0.6¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $16,667 (167x)Spencer Huang0.8%Polymarket 0.5%polled, 46 min agoKalshi 1%polled, 46 min agoBest Yes 0.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $16,667 (167x)
Spencer Huang
0.8%
0.5%
0.4¢ bid, 0.6¢ ask
polled, 46 min ago
1%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 46 min ago
0.6¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $16,667 (167x)
Spencer Huang
0.8%
Polymarket 0.5%polled, 46 min agoKalshi 1%polled, 46 min agoBest Yes 0.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $16,667 (167x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Spencer Huang
- Last price
- 0.5%
- As of
- Polled 46 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 0.6¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.4¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $16,667 (167x)
- Volume
- $3K
Kalshi
- Contract
- Spencer Huang
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled 46 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $15K
Partial parity · AI-reviewed
Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.
Indicative only, prices are 46 min old: No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.4¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 1¢.
Thomas Kurian0.8%0.7%0.2¢ bid, 1.1¢ askpolled, 46 min ago1%1¢ bid, 2¢ askpolled, 46 min ago1.1¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $9,091 (90.9x)Thomas Kurian0.8%Polymarket 0.7%polled, 46 min agoKalshi 1%polled, 46 min agoBest Yes 1.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $9,091 (90.9x)
Thomas Kurian
0.8%
0.7%
0.2¢ bid, 1.1¢ ask
polled, 46 min ago
1%
1¢ bid, 2¢ ask
polled, 46 min ago
1.1¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $9,091 (90.9x)
Thomas Kurian
0.8%
Polymarket 0.7%polled, 46 min agoKalshi 1%polled, 46 min agoBest Yes 1.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $9,091 (90.9x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Thomas Kurian
- Last price
- 0.7%
- As of
- Polled 46 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 1.1¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.2¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $9,091 (90.9x)
- Volume
- $3K
Kalshi
- Contract
- Thomas Kurian
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled 46 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 2¢
- Sell Yes
- 1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $5,000 (50.0x)
- Volume
- $22K
Partial parity · AI-reviewed
Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.
Indicative only, prices are 46 min old: No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 1.1¢.
Bret Taylor0.8%Not listed1%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 46 min ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)Bret Taylor0.8%Kalshi 1%polled, 46 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Bret Taylor
0.8%
Not listed
1%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 46 min ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Bret Taylor
0.8%
Kalshi 1%polled, 46 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Bret Taylor
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled 46 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $704
Bryan Catanzaro0.8%Not listed1%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 46 min ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)Bryan Catanzaro0.8%Kalshi 1%polled, 46 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Bryan Catanzaro
0.8%
Not listed
1%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 46 min ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Bryan Catanzaro
0.8%
Kalshi 1%polled, 46 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Bryan Catanzaro
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled 46 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $7K
Cristiano Amon0.8%Not listed1%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 46 min ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)Cristiano Amon0.8%Kalshi 1%polled, 46 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Cristiano Amon
0.8%
Not listed
1%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 46 min ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Cristiano Amon
0.8%
Kalshi 1%polled, 46 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Cristiano Amon
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled 46 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $594
Harvey C. Jones0.8%Not listed1%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 46 min ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)Harvey C. Jones0.8%Kalshi 1%polled, 46 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Harvey C. Jones
0.8%
Not listed
1%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 46 min ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Harvey C. Jones
0.8%
Kalshi 1%polled, 46 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Harvey C. Jones
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled 46 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $2K
Jeff Fisher0.8%Not listed1%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 46 min ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)Jeff Fisher0.8%Kalshi 1%polled, 46 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Jeff Fisher
0.8%
Not listed
1%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 46 min ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Jeff Fisher
0.8%
Kalshi 1%polled, 46 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Jeff Fisher
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled 46 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $4K
Lip-Bu Tan0.8%Not listed1%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 46 min ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)Lip-Bu Tan0.8%Kalshi 1%polled, 46 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Lip-Bu Tan
0.8%
Not listed
1%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 46 min ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Lip-Bu Tan
0.8%
Kalshi 1%polled, 46 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Lip-Bu Tan
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled 46 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $7K
Manuvir Das0.8%Not listed1%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 46 min ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)Manuvir Das0.8%Kalshi 1%polled, 46 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Manuvir Das
0.8%
Not listed
1%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 46 min ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Manuvir Das
0.8%
Kalshi 1%polled, 46 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Manuvir Das
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled 46 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $9K
Matt Murphy0.8%Not listed1%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 46 min ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)Matt Murphy0.8%Kalshi 1%polled, 46 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Matt Murphy
0.8%
Not listed
1%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 46 min ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Matt Murphy
0.8%
Kalshi 1%polled, 46 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Matt Murphy
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled 46 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $9K
Satya Nadella0.8%Not listed1%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 46 min ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)Satya Nadella0.8%Kalshi 1%polled, 46 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Satya Nadella
0.8%
Not listed
1%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 46 min ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Satya Nadella
0.8%
Kalshi 1%polled, 46 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Satya Nadella
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled 46 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $14K
Stephen Neal0.8%Not listed1%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 46 min ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)Stephen Neal0.8%Kalshi 1%polled, 46 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Stephen Neal
0.8%
Not listed
1%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 46 min ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Stephen Neal
0.8%
Kalshi 1%polled, 46 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Stephen Neal
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled 46 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $12K
Curtis Priem0.7%0.5%0.1¢ bid, 0.9¢ askpolled, 46 min ago1%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 46 min ago0.9¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $11,111 (111x)Curtis Priem0.7%Polymarket 0.5%polled, 46 min agoKalshi 1%polled, 46 min agoBest Yes 0.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $11,111 (111x)
Curtis Priem
0.7%
0.5%
0.1¢ bid, 0.9¢ ask
polled, 46 min ago
1%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 46 min ago
0.9¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $11,111 (111x)
Curtis Priem
0.7%
Polymarket 0.5%polled, 46 min agoKalshi 1%polled, 46 min agoBest Yes 0.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $11,111 (111x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Curtis Priem
- Last price
- 0.5%
- As of
- Polled 46 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 0.9¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $11,111 (111x)
- Volume
- $142
Kalshi
- Contract
- Curtis Priem
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled 46 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
Partial parity · AI-reviewed
Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.
Indicative only, prices are 46 min old: No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 1¢.
Hock Tan0.7%0.4%0.1¢ bid, 0.6¢ askpolled, 46 min ago1%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 46 min ago0.6¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $16,667 (167x)Hock Tan0.7%Polymarket 0.4%polled, 46 min agoKalshi 1%polled, 46 min agoBest Yes 0.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $16,667 (167x)
Hock Tan
0.7%
0.4%
0.1¢ bid, 0.6¢ ask
polled, 46 min ago
1%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 46 min ago
0.6¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $16,667 (167x)
Hock Tan
0.7%
Polymarket 0.4%polled, 46 min agoKalshi 1%polled, 46 min agoBest Yes 0.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $16,667 (167x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Hock Tan
- Last price
- 0.4%
- As of
- Polled 46 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 0.6¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $16,667 (167x)
- Volume
- $2K
Kalshi
- Contract
- Hock Tan
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled 46 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $5K
Partial parity · AI-reviewed
Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.
Indicative only, prices are 46 min old: No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 1¢.
Matt Garman0.7%0.4%0.1¢ bid, 0.6¢ askpolled, 46 min ago1%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 46 min ago0.6¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $16,667 (167x)Matt Garman0.7%Polymarket 0.4%polled, 46 min agoKalshi 1%polled, 46 min agoBest Yes 0.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $16,667 (167x)
Matt Garman
0.7%
0.4%
0.1¢ bid, 0.6¢ ask
polled, 46 min ago
1%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 46 min ago
0.6¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $16,667 (167x)
Matt Garman
0.7%
Polymarket 0.4%polled, 46 min agoKalshi 1%polled, 46 min agoBest Yes 0.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $16,667 (167x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Matt Garman
- Last price
- 0.4%
- As of
- Polled 46 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 0.6¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $16,667 (167x)
- Volume
- $3K
Kalshi
- Contract
- Matt Garman
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled 46 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $14K
Partial parity · AI-reviewed
Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.
Indicative only, prices are 46 min old: No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 1¢.
Emmett Shear0.4%Not listed0.5%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 46 min ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)Emmett Shear0.4%Kalshi 0.5%polled, 46 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Emmett Shear
0.4%
Not listed
0.5%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 46 min ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Emmett Shear
0.4%
Kalshi 0.5%polled, 46 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Emmett Shear
- Last price
- 0.5%
- As of
- Polled 46 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
Indicative gap, prices are 46 min old: Nikesh Arora asks 0.2¢ on Polymarket and bids 3¢ on Kalshi (280 bps). Recheck both venues before trading. See all spreads
Mostly the same bet: 6 differences
Where they differ
- Kalshi pays Yes for any person appointed/named CEO before Jan 1, 2029, while Polymarket pays only for the first individual announced as successor. Differences arise if multiple people are named, e.g. an announced successor who is replaced before the deadline.
- Kalshi references the full NEWROLE rules, which are not provided; Polymarket relies on NVIDIA statements with credible reporting as a fallback. Resolution sources could differ slightly in wording.
- Kalshi lists additional candidates (e.g. Bret Taylor, Bryan Catanzaro, Lip-Bu Tan, Satya Nadella) not on Polymarket; these are not linked.
- Polymarket has a 'Jensen Huang (No Change)' outcome, whereas Kalshi has a 'Jensen Huang' outcome that resolves Yes only if he is newly appointed/named CEO. They are not the same.
- Deadline wording differs slightly: Kalshi says before Jan 1, 2029 (end date 05:00 UTC) and Polymarket says by Dec 31, 2028 11:59 PM ET; effectively the same moment.
- Polymarket explicitly pays for an announced successor even if they never take over; Kalshi similarly does not require starting the role. Kalshi also covers 'succeeded' and 'elected', but practically the same.
- Polymarket resolves via:
- UMA optimistic oracle
- Kalshi resolves via:
- Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: ESPN, ABC, The Information
Show full rule comparisonHide full rule comparison
- Kalshi pays Yes for any person appointed/named CEO before Jan 1, 2029, while Polymarket pays only for the first individual announced as successor. Differences arise if multiple people are named, e.g. an announced successor who is replaced before the deadline.
- Kalshi references the full NEWROLE rules, which are not provided; Polymarket relies on NVIDIA statements with credible reporting as a fallback. Resolution sources could differ slightly in wording.
- Kalshi lists additional candidates (e.g. Bret Taylor, Bryan Catanzaro, Lip-Bu Tan, Satya Nadella) not on Polymarket; these are not linked.
- Polymarket has a 'Jensen Huang (No Change)' outcome, whereas Kalshi has a 'Jensen Huang' outcome that resolves Yes only if he is newly appointed/named CEO. They are not the same.
- Deadline wording differs slightly: Kalshi says before Jan 1, 2029 (end date 05:00 UTC) and Polymarket says by Dec 31, 2028 11:59 PM ET; effectively the same moment.
- Polymarket explicitly pays for an announced successor even if they never take over; Kalshi similarly does not require starting the role. Kalshi also covers 'succeeded' and 'elected', but practically the same.
- Trading closes Jan 1, 2029, 4:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Jan 1, 2029, 5:00 AM UTC on Kalshi.
Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.
How the odds have moved
The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.
- Ian Buck
- Colette Kress
- Rene Haas
Live prices for Ian Buck
What it costs to buy Yes, what you would get selling it, and the last trade on each exchange, updating as orders change. Hover a status for timing details.
Order books
Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.
Polymarket
Open on Polymarket ↗Top of book
ConnectingBest bid
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Spread
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Best ask
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Waiting for the first live quote…
Depth · top 8 levels
Loading snapshot…Recent trades
Loading…Kalshi
Open on Kalshi ↗Top of book
ConnectingBest bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—
Waiting for the first live quote…
Depth · top 8 levels
Loading snapshot…Recent trades
Loading…What your stake buys
Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.
$
Buy
Loading both order books…
Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (economics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.
About this market
Live prediction market odds for "Who will be the next CEO of NVIDIA?". Ian Buck leads at 26.3%. Next is Colette Kress at 13.6%. $3.2M has traded across 36 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 1, 2029.
Questions
What does the consensus price mean?
It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.
How is the payout worked out?
A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.
Why do the venues show different prices?
Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.
Is a price gap an arbitrage?
Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.
How fresh are these prices?
Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.
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