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Best ask
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Waiting for the first live quote…
What the markets expect
Mia Knight 14.8%
Next is Cade Mower at 13.9%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.
Odds by venue
Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.
Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 3 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.
- Kalshi
Outcome
Fair chance
Venue prices on a 0–100% scale
Kalshi
Best Yes price
Mia Knight14.8%15%8¢ bid, 44¢ askpolled, 3 min ago44¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $227 (2.27x)Mia Knight14.8%Kalshi 15%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 44¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $227 (2.27x)
Mia Knight
14.8%
15%
8¢ bid, 44¢ ask
polled, 3 min ago
44¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $227 (2.27x)
Mia Knight
14.8%
Kalshi 15%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 44¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $227 (2.27x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Mia Knight
- Last price
- 15%
- As of
- Polled 3 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 44¢
- Sell Yes
- 8¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $227 (2.27x)
- Volume
- $10
Cade Mower13.9%14%14¢ bid, 63¢ askpolled, 3 min ago63¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $159 (1.59x)Cade Mower13.9%Kalshi 14%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 63¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $159 (1.59x)
Cade Mower
13.9%
14%
14¢ bid, 63¢ ask
polled, 3 min ago
63¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $159 (1.59x)
Cade Mower
13.9%
Kalshi 14%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 63¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $159 (1.59x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Cade Mower
- Last price
- 14%
- As of
- Polled 3 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 63¢
- Sell Yes
- 14¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $159 (1.59x)
- Volume
- $21
Joey Henley4.9%5%5¢ bid, 66¢ askpolled, 3 min ago66¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $152 (1.52x)Joey Henley4.9%Kalshi 5%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 66¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $152 (1.52x)
Joey Henley
4.9%
5%
5¢ bid, 66¢ ask
polled, 3 min ago
66¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $152 (1.52x)
Joey Henley
4.9%
Kalshi 5%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 66¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $152 (1.52x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Joey Henley
- Last price
- 5%
- As of
- Polled 3 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 66¢
- Sell Yes
- 5¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $152 (1.52x)
- Volume
- $23
Lillie Kolich4.9%5%5¢ bid, 57¢ askpolled, 3 min ago57¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $175 (1.75x)Lillie Kolich4.9%Kalshi 5%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 57¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $175 (1.75x)
Lillie Kolich
4.9%
5%
5¢ bid, 57¢ ask
polled, 3 min ago
57¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $175 (1.75x)
Lillie Kolich
4.9%
Kalshi 5%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 57¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $175 (1.75x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Lillie Kolich
- Last price
- 5%
- As of
- Polled 3 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 57¢
- Sell Yes
- 5¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $175 (1.75x)
- Volume
- $16
Anna McElroy4%4%4¢ bid, 68¢ askpolled, 3 min ago68¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $147 (1.47x)Anna McElroy4%Kalshi 4%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 68¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $147 (1.47x)
Anna McElroy
4%
4%
4¢ bid, 68¢ ask
polled, 3 min ago
68¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $147 (1.47x)
Anna McElroy
4%
Kalshi 4%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 68¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $147 (1.47x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Anna McElroy
- Last price
- 4%
- As of
- Polled 3 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 68¢
- Sell Yes
- 4¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $147 (1.47x)
- Volume
- $2
BigCountry3.9%4%4¢ bid, 70¢ askpolled, 3 min ago70¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $143 (1.43x)BigCountry3.9%Kalshi 4%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 70¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $143 (1.43x)
BigCountry
3.9%
4%
4¢ bid, 70¢ ask
polled, 3 min ago
70¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $143 (1.43x)
BigCountry
3.9%
Kalshi 4%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 70¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $143 (1.43x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- BigCountry
- Last price
- 4%
- As of
- Polled 3 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 70¢
- Sell Yes
- 4¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $143 (1.43x)
- Volume
- $2
Brianna Cameron3.9%4%4¢ bid, 69¢ askpolled, 3 min ago69¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $145 (1.45x)Brianna Cameron3.9%Kalshi 4%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 69¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $145 (1.45x)
Brianna Cameron
3.9%
4%
4¢ bid, 69¢ ask
polled, 3 min ago
69¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $145 (1.45x)
Brianna Cameron
3.9%
Kalshi 4%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 69¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $145 (1.45x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Brianna Cameron
- Last price
- 4%
- As of
- Polled 3 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 69¢
- Sell Yes
- 4¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $145 (1.45x)
- Volume
- $2
Ferryn & Brinkley3.9%4%4¢ bid, 64¢ askpolled, 3 min ago64¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $156 (1.56x)Ferryn & Brinkley3.9%Kalshi 4%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 64¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $156 (1.56x)
Ferryn & Brinkley
3.9%
4%
4¢ bid, 64¢ ask
polled, 3 min ago
64¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $156 (1.56x)
Ferryn & Brinkley
3.9%
Kalshi 4%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 64¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $156 (1.56x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Ferryn & Brinkley
- Last price
- 4%
- As of
- Polled 3 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 64¢
- Sell Yes
- 4¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $156 (1.56x)
- Volume
- $2
Koumba Diallo3.9%4%4¢ bid, 55¢ askpolled, 3 min ago55¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $182 (1.82x)Koumba Diallo3.9%Kalshi 4%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 55¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $182 (1.82x)
Koumba Diallo
3.9%
4%
4¢ bid, 55¢ ask
polled, 3 min ago
55¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $182 (1.82x)
Koumba Diallo
3.9%
Kalshi 4%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 55¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $182 (1.82x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Koumba Diallo
- Last price
- 4%
- As of
- Polled 3 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 55¢
- Sell Yes
- 4¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $182 (1.82x)
- Volume
- $2
Lexi Stephens3.9%4%4¢ bid, 58¢ askpolled, 3 min ago58¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $172 (1.72x)Lexi Stephens3.9%Kalshi 4%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 58¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $172 (1.72x)
Lexi Stephens
3.9%
4%
4¢ bid, 58¢ ask
polled, 3 min ago
58¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $172 (1.72x)
Lexi Stephens
3.9%
Kalshi 4%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 58¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $172 (1.72x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Lexi Stephens
- Last price
- 4%
- As of
- Polled 3 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 58¢
- Sell Yes
- 4¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $172 (1.72x)
- Volume
- $2
Show 18 more outcomesHide 18 outcomes
Connor Closs3%3%3¢ bid, 58¢ askpolled, 3 min ago58¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $172 (1.72x)Connor Closs3%Kalshi 3%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 58¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $172 (1.72x)
Connor Closs
3%
3%
3¢ bid, 58¢ ask
polled, 3 min ago
58¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $172 (1.72x)
Connor Closs
3%
Kalshi 3%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 58¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $172 (1.72x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Connor Closs
- Last price
- 3%
- As of
- Polled 3 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 58¢
- Sell Yes
- 3¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $172 (1.72x)
- Volume
- $2
Dakota Cohen3%3%3¢ bid, 69¢ askpolled, 3 min ago69¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $145 (1.45x)Dakota Cohen3%Kalshi 3%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 69¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $145 (1.45x)
Dakota Cohen
3%
3%
3¢ bid, 69¢ ask
polled, 3 min ago
69¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $145 (1.45x)
Dakota Cohen
3%
Kalshi 3%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 69¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $145 (1.45x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Dakota Cohen
- Last price
- 3%
- As of
- Polled 3 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 69¢
- Sell Yes
- 3¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $145 (1.45x)
- Volume
- $2
Allie Rae2%2%2¢ bid, 56¢ askpolled, 3 min ago56¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $179 (1.79x)Allie Rae2%Kalshi 2%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 56¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $179 (1.79x)
Allie Rae
2%
2%
2¢ bid, 56¢ ask
polled, 3 min ago
56¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $179 (1.79x)
Allie Rae
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 56¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $179 (1.79x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Allie Rae
- Last price
- 2%
- As of
- Polled 3 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 56¢
- Sell Yes
- 2¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $179 (1.79x)
- Volume
- $2
Alt Bloom2%2%2¢ bid, 52¢ askpolled, 3 min ago52¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $192 (1.92x)Alt Bloom2%Kalshi 2%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 52¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $192 (1.92x)
Alt Bloom
2%
2%
2¢ bid, 52¢ ask
polled, 3 min ago
52¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $192 (1.92x)
Alt Bloom
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 52¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $192 (1.92x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Alt Bloom
- Last price
- 2%
- As of
- Polled 3 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 52¢
- Sell Yes
- 2¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $192 (1.92x)
- Volume
- $2
Amanda Mikkel2%2%2¢ bid, 70¢ askpolled, 3 min ago70¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $143 (1.43x)Amanda Mikkel2%Kalshi 2%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 70¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $143 (1.43x)
Amanda Mikkel
2%
2%
2¢ bid, 70¢ ask
polled, 3 min ago
70¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $143 (1.43x)
Amanda Mikkel
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 70¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $143 (1.43x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Amanda Mikkel
- Last price
- 2%
- As of
- Polled 3 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 70¢
- Sell Yes
- 2¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $143 (1.43x)
- Volume
- $2
Brandon Diaz2%2%2¢ bid, 70¢ askpolled, 3 min ago70¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $143 (1.43x)Brandon Diaz2%Kalshi 2%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 70¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $143 (1.43x)
Brandon Diaz
2%
2%
2¢ bid, 70¢ ask
polled, 3 min ago
70¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $143 (1.43x)
Brandon Diaz
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 70¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $143 (1.43x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Brandon Diaz
- Last price
- 2%
- As of
- Polled 3 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 70¢
- Sell Yes
- 2¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $143 (1.43x)
- Volume
- $2
Brooklyn Marie2%2%2¢ bid, 56¢ askpolled, 3 min ago56¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $179 (1.79x)Brooklyn Marie2%Kalshi 2%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 56¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $179 (1.79x)
Brooklyn Marie
2%
2%
2¢ bid, 56¢ ask
polled, 3 min ago
56¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $179 (1.79x)
Brooklyn Marie
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 56¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $179 (1.79x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Brooklyn Marie
- Last price
- 2%
- As of
- Polled 3 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 56¢
- Sell Yes
- 2¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $179 (1.79x)
- Volume
- $2
Bryan Jaymes2%2%2¢ bid, 68¢ askpolled, 3 min ago68¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $147 (1.47x)Bryan Jaymes2%Kalshi 2%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 68¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $147 (1.47x)
Bryan Jaymes
2%
2%
2¢ bid, 68¢ ask
polled, 3 min ago
68¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $147 (1.47x)
Bryan Jaymes
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 68¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $147 (1.47x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Bryan Jaymes
- Last price
- 2%
- As of
- Polled 3 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 68¢
- Sell Yes
- 2¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $147 (1.47x)
- Volume
- $2
Chari2%2%2¢ bid, 69¢ askpolled, 3 min ago69¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $145 (1.45x)Chari2%Kalshi 2%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 69¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $145 (1.45x)
Chari
2%
2%
2¢ bid, 69¢ ask
polled, 3 min ago
69¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $145 (1.45x)
Chari
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 69¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $145 (1.45x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Chari
- Last price
- 2%
- As of
- Polled 3 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 69¢
- Sell Yes
- 2¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $145 (1.45x)
- Volume
- $2
Destinee Monroe2%2%2¢ bid, 3¢ askpolled, 3 min ago3¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)Destinee Monroe2%Kalshi 2%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Destinee Monroe
2%
2%
2¢ bid, 3¢ ask
polled, 3 min ago
3¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Destinee Monroe
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Destinee Monroe
- Last price
- 2%
- As of
- Polled 3 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 3¢
- Sell Yes
- 2¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $3,333 (33.3x)
- Volume
- $4K
Evan James2%2%2¢ bid, 61¢ askpolled, 3 min ago61¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $164 (1.64x)Evan James2%Kalshi 2%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 61¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $164 (1.64x)
Evan James
2%
2%
2¢ bid, 61¢ ask
polled, 3 min ago
61¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $164 (1.64x)
Evan James
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 61¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $164 (1.64x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Evan James
- Last price
- 2%
- As of
- Polled 3 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 61¢
- Sell Yes
- 2¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $164 (1.64x)
- Volume
- $2
Everett Bounds2%2%2¢ bid, 55¢ askpolled, 3 min ago55¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $182 (1.82x)Everett Bounds2%Kalshi 2%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 55¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $182 (1.82x)
Everett Bounds
2%
2%
2¢ bid, 55¢ ask
polled, 3 min ago
55¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $182 (1.82x)
Everett Bounds
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 55¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $182 (1.82x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Everett Bounds
- Last price
- 2%
- As of
- Polled 3 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 55¢
- Sell Yes
- 2¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $182 (1.82x)
- Volume
- $2
Kayleigh Mathews2%2%2¢ bid, 69¢ askpolled, 3 min ago69¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $145 (1.45x)Kayleigh Mathews2%Kalshi 2%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 69¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $145 (1.45x)
Kayleigh Mathews
2%
2%
2¢ bid, 69¢ ask
polled, 3 min ago
69¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $145 (1.45x)
Kayleigh Mathews
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 69¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $145 (1.45x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Kayleigh Mathews
- Last price
- 2%
- As of
- Polled 3 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 69¢
- Sell Yes
- 2¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $145 (1.45x)
- Volume
- $2
Keiyana Osmond2%2%2¢ bid, 68¢ askpolled, 3 min ago68¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $147 (1.47x)Keiyana Osmond2%Kalshi 2%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 68¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $147 (1.47x)
Keiyana Osmond
2%
2%
2¢ bid, 68¢ ask
polled, 3 min ago
68¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $147 (1.47x)
Keiyana Osmond
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 68¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $147 (1.47x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Keiyana Osmond
- Last price
- 2%
- As of
- Polled 3 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 68¢
- Sell Yes
- 2¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $147 (1.47x)
- Volume
- $2
Kyle Davis2%2%2¢ bid, 68¢ askpolled, 3 min ago68¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $147 (1.47x)Kyle Davis2%Kalshi 2%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 68¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $147 (1.47x)
Kyle Davis
2%
2%
2¢ bid, 68¢ ask
polled, 3 min ago
68¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $147 (1.47x)
Kyle Davis
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 68¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $147 (1.47x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Kyle Davis
- Last price
- 2%
- As of
- Polled 3 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 68¢
- Sell Yes
- 2¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $147 (1.47x)
- Volume
- $2
Marcus Ladden Jr.2%2%2¢ bid, 55¢ askpolled, 3 min ago55¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $182 (1.82x)Marcus Ladden Jr.2%Kalshi 2%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 55¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $182 (1.82x)
Marcus Ladden Jr.
2%
2%
2¢ bid, 55¢ ask
polled, 3 min ago
55¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $182 (1.82x)
Marcus Ladden Jr.
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 55¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $182 (1.82x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Marcus Ladden Jr.
- Last price
- 2%
- As of
- Polled 3 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 55¢
- Sell Yes
- 2¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $182 (1.82x)
- Volume
- $2
Nina Howland2%2%2¢ bid, 68¢ askpolled, 3 min ago68¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $147 (1.47x)Nina Howland2%Kalshi 2%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 68¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $147 (1.47x)
Nina Howland
2%
2%
2¢ bid, 68¢ ask
polled, 3 min ago
68¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $147 (1.47x)
Nina Howland
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 68¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $147 (1.47x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Nina Howland
- Last price
- 2%
- As of
- Polled 3 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 68¢
- Sell Yes
- 2¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $147 (1.47x)
- Volume
- $2
Owen Uffens2%2%2¢ bid, 70¢ askpolled, 3 min ago70¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $143 (1.43x)Owen Uffens2%Kalshi 2%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 70¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $143 (1.43x)
Owen Uffens
2%
2%
2¢ bid, 70¢ ask
polled, 3 min ago
70¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $143 (1.43x)
Owen Uffens
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 70¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $143 (1.43x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Owen Uffens
- Last price
- 2%
- As of
- Polled 3 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 70¢
- Sell Yes
- 2¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $143 (1.43x)
- Volume
- $2
Who resolves this market
- Kalshi resolves via:
- Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: NBC
How the odds have moved
The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.
- Mia Knight
- Cade Mower
- Joey Henley
Order books
Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.
What your stake buys
Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.
$
Buy
Loading both order books…
Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (culture rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.
About this market
Live prediction market odds for "Who will win The Voice Season 30?". Mia Knight leads at 14.8%. Next is Cade Mower at 13.9%. $4K has traded across 28 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 8, 2027.
Questions
What does the consensus price mean?
It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.
How is the payout worked out?
A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.
Why do the venues show different prices?
Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.
Is a price gap an arbitrage?
Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.
How fresh are these prices?
Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.
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