The Prediction Markets

Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above ___ end of November?

Closes
Nov 30, 2026, in 26 days
Traded
$2K
Venues
Polymarket
Prices updated
30 min ago
Share

Cite these odds

Free to quote with credit. Prices move, so keep the time.

Citation

Link to the live page
Image1200 × 675 card with the time printed on itDownload PNG

How to describe the numbers, and the reuse terms, are on the press page.

Embed this on your site

Free to use with the credit link. Prices refresh every minute.

Widget
Theme
Size

The script resizes the frame to fit; the iframe works without it.

Newsletters can’t run the live widget, so this is a picture of it with the time printed on it, linking to the live page.

What the markets expect

435 97.4%

Next is 450 at 97.2%. Only Polymarket lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 30 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
435
97.4%
Polymarket 97.4%polled, 30 min agoBest Yes 99.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100 (1.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
435
Last price
97.4%
As of
Polled 30 min ago
Buy Yes
99.8¢
Sell Yes
95¢
$100 on Yes pays
$100 (1.00x)
Trade this on Polymarket
450
97.2%
Polymarket 97.2%polled, 30 min agoBest Yes 99.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Polymarket
Contract
450
Last price
97.2%
As of
Polled 30 min ago
Buy Yes
99.3¢
Sell Yes
95¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Trade this on Polymarket
480
97%
Polymarket 97%polled, 30 min agoBest Yes 98.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Polymarket
Contract
480
Last price
97%
As of
Polled 30 min ago
Buy Yes
98.6¢
Sell Yes
95.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$550
Trade this on Polymarket
465
96.4%
Polymarket 96.4%polled, 30 min agoBest Yes 98.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Polymarket
Contract
465
Last price
96.4%
As of
Polled 30 min ago
Buy Yes
98.8¢
Sell Yes
94¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$5
Trade this on Polymarket
495
93%
Polymarket 93%polled, 30 min agoBest Yes 96¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $104 (1.04x)
Polymarket
Contract
495
Last price
93%
As of
Polled 30 min ago
Buy Yes
96¢
Sell Yes
90¢
$100 on Yes pays
$104 (1.04x)
Volume
$5
Trade this on Polymarket
510
90.5%
Polymarket 90.5%polled, 30 min agoBest Yes 93¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $108 (1.08x)
Polymarket
Contract
510
Last price
90.5%
As of
Polled 30 min ago
Buy Yes
93¢
Sell Yes
88¢
$100 on Yes pays
$108 (1.08x)
Trade this on Polymarket
525
80.5%
Polymarket 80.5%polled, 30 min agoBest Yes 83¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $120 (1.20x)
Polymarket
Contract
525
Last price
80.5%
As of
Polled 30 min ago
Buy Yes
83¢
Sell Yes
78¢
$100 on Yes pays
$120 (1.20x)
Volume
$131
Trade this on Polymarket
540
68%
Polymarket 68%polled, 30 min agoBest Yes 70¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $143 (1.43x)
Polymarket
Contract
540
Last price
68%
As of
Polled 30 min ago
Buy Yes
70¢
Sell Yes
66¢
$100 on Yes pays
$143 (1.43x)
Volume
$500
Trade this on Polymarket
555
51%
Polymarket 51%polled, 30 min agoBest Yes 53¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $189 (1.89x)
Polymarket
Contract
555
Last price
51%
As of
Polled 30 min ago
Buy Yes
53¢
Sell Yes
49¢
$100 on Yes pays
$189 (1.89x)
Volume
$610
Trade this on Polymarket
570
35%
Polymarket 35%polled, 30 min agoBest Yes 37¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $270 (2.70x)
Polymarket
Contract
570
Last price
35%
As of
Polled 30 min ago
Buy Yes
37¢
Sell Yes
33¢
$100 on Yes pays
$270 (2.70x)
Volume
$157
Trade this on Polymarket
Show 3 more outcomes
585
21.7%
Polymarket 21.7%polled, 30 min agoBest Yes 24¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $417 (4.17x)
Polymarket
Contract
585
Last price
21.7%
As of
Polled 30 min ago
Buy Yes
24¢
Sell Yes
19.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$417 (4.17x)
Volume
$100
Trade this on Polymarket
600
11.4%
Polymarket 11.4%polled, 30 min agoBest Yes 14¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $714 (7.14x)
Polymarket
Contract
600
Last price
11.4%
As of
Polled 30 min ago
Buy Yes
14¢
Sell Yes
8.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$714 (7.14x)
Trade this on Polymarket
615
7.5%
Polymarket 7.5%polled, 30 min agoBest Yes 10.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $990 (9.90x)
Polymarket
Contract
615
Last price
7.5%
As of
Polled 30 min ago
Buy Yes
10.1¢
Sell Yes
4.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$990 (9.90x)
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: pythdata.app

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • 435
  • 450
  • 480

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

Loading snapshot…

Recent trades

Loading…

What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above ___ end of November?". 435 leads at 97.4%. Next is 450 at 97.2%. $2K has traded across 13 outcomes on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 30, 2026.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Close price for Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) on the final trading day of November 2026 is higher than the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." If the two specified prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve to "No". Closing prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. If Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) does not trade at all during the regular session of the final trading day of the month, the market will resolve 50-50. For a standard full trading session, the closing price refers to the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle corresponding to the final minute of regular trading hours on the primary exchange. If the relevant session is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle corresponding to the final minute of that shortened session will be used. If the relevant day has no valid Pyth Close value for the 1-minute candle corresponding to the end of regular trading hours on the primary exchange, the market will use the last valid Pyth price achieved during the regular trading hours of the primary exchange as the effective closing price. If no valid Pyth price exists for that trading day due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption, the official closing price published by the primary exchange on which the listed security trades will be used to determine the closing price for that day. In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed security during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. The target price will be adjusted proportionally to reflect any stock splits. Resolution will be based on the historical price data as shown on Pyth after any adjustments have been applied. The resolution source for this market will be Pyth, specifically the "Close" values for the relevant 1-minute candle for Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) available at https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.MSFT%2FUSD.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

More ai_tech markets

See all ai_tech markets