The Prediction Markets

Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above ___ end of November?

Closes
Nov 30, 2026, in 25 days
Traded
$2K
Venues
Polymarket
Prices updated
just now
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What the markets expect

140 92.1%

Next is 150 at 87%. Only Polymarket lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
140
92.1%
Polymarket 92.1%polled, 23s agoBest Yes 96.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Polymarket
Contract
140
Last price
92.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
96.7¢
Sell Yes
87.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$103 (1.03x)
Trade this on Polymarket
150
87%
Polymarket 87%polled, 23s agoBest Yes 88.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $113 (1.13x)
Polymarket
Contract
150
Last price
87%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
88.5¢
Sell Yes
85.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$113 (1.13x)
Volume
$920
Trade this on Polymarket
160
79.5%
Polymarket 79.5%polled, 23s agoBest Yes 81¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $123 (1.23x)
Polymarket
Contract
160
Last price
79.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
81¢
Sell Yes
78¢
$100 on Yes pays
$123 (1.23x)
Volume
$570
Trade this on Polymarket
170
69%
Polymarket 69%polled, 23s agoBest Yes 70¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $143 (1.43x)
Polymarket
Contract
170
Last price
69%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
70¢
Sell Yes
68¢
$100 on Yes pays
$143 (1.43x)
Volume
$135
Trade this on Polymarket
180
55.5%
Polymarket 55.5%polled, 23s agoBest Yes 59¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $169 (1.69x)
Polymarket
Contract
180
Last price
55.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
59¢
Sell Yes
52¢
$100 on Yes pays
$169 (1.69x)
Volume
$53
Trade this on Polymarket
190
44%
Polymarket 44%polled, 23s agoBest Yes 49¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $204 (2.04x)
Polymarket
Contract
190
Last price
44%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
49¢
Sell Yes
39¢
$100 on Yes pays
$204 (2.04x)
Volume
$5
Trade this on Polymarket
200
30%
Polymarket 30%polled, 23s agoBest Yes 35¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $286 (2.86x)
Polymarket
Contract
200
Last price
30%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
35¢
Sell Yes
25¢
$100 on Yes pays
$286 (2.86x)
Trade this on Polymarket
210
17%
Polymarket 17%polled, 23s agoBest Yes 22¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $455 (4.55x)
Polymarket
Contract
210
Last price
17%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
22¢
Sell Yes
12¢
$100 on Yes pays
$455 (4.55x)
Volume
$16
Trade this on Polymarket
220
9.5%
Polymarket 9.5%polled, 23s agoBest Yes 14¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $714 (7.14x)
Polymarket
Contract
220
Last price
9.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
14¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$714 (7.14x)
Volume
$17
Trade this on Polymarket
230
6%
Polymarket 6%polled, 23s agoBest Yes 9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Polymarket
Contract
230
Last price
6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Show 3 more outcomes
240
3.6%
Polymarket 3.6%polled, 23s agoBest Yes 6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
240
Last price
3.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
1.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Trade this on Polymarket
260
2.9%
Polymarket 2.9%polled, 23s agoBest Yes 5.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,923 (19.2x)
Polymarket
Contract
260
Last price
2.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5.2¢
Sell Yes
0.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,923 (19.2x)
Trade this on Polymarket
250
2.8%
Polymarket 2.8%polled, 23s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
250
Last price
2.8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
0.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: pythdata.app

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • 140
  • 150
  • 160

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

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Best bid
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Spread
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Best ask
—

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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above ___ end of November?". 140 leads at 92.1%. Next is 150 at 87%. $2K has traded across 13 outcomes on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 30, 2026.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Close price for NVIDIA (NVDA) on the final trading day of November 2026 is higher than the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." If the two specified prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve to "No". Closing prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. If NVIDIA (NVDA) does not trade at all during the regular session of the final trading day of the month, the market will resolve 50-50. For a standard full trading session, the closing price refers to the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle corresponding to the final minute of regular trading hours on the primary exchange. If the relevant session is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle corresponding to the final minute of that shortened session will be used. If the relevant day has no valid Pyth Close value for the 1-minute candle corresponding to the end of regular trading hours on the primary exchange, the market will use the last valid Pyth price achieved during the regular trading hours of the primary exchange as the effective closing price. If no valid Pyth price exists for that trading day due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption, the official closing price published by the primary exchange on which the listed security trades will be used to determine the closing price for that day. In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed security during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. The target price will be adjusted proportionally to reflect any stock splits. Resolution will be based on the historical price data as shown on Pyth after any adjustments have been applied. The resolution source for this market will be Pyth, specifically the "Close" values for the relevant 1-minute candle for NVIDIA (NVDA) available at https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.NVDA%2FUSD.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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