The Prediction Markets

Will SpaceX (SPCX) finish week of October 19 above___?

Closes
Oct 23, 2026, in 22 hours
Traded
$3K
Venues
Polymarket
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

130 67.5%

Next is 140 at 60%. Only Polymarket lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
130
67.5%
Polymarket 67.5%polled, 17s agoBest Yes 99.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100 (1.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
130
Last price
67.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
99.8¢
Sell Yes
35.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$100 (1.00x)
Volume
$291
Trade this on Polymarket
140
60%
Polymarket 60%polled, 17s agoBest Yes 99¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Polymarket
Contract
140
Last price
60%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
21¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Trade this on Polymarket
115
59%
Polymarket 59%polled, 17s agoBest Yes 99.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100 (1.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
115
Last price
59%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
99.9¢
Sell Yes
18¢
$100 on Yes pays
$100 (1.00x)
Trade this on Polymarket
125
54.5%
Polymarket 54.5%polled, 17s agoBest Yes 99.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100 (1.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
125
Last price
54.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
99.9¢
Sell Yes
9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$100 (1.00x)
Trade this on Polymarket
120
53.9%
Polymarket 53.9%polled, 17s agoBest Yes 99.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100 (1.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
120
Last price
53.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
99.9¢
Sell Yes
7.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$100 (1.00x)
Trade this on Polymarket
145
53.4%
Polymarket 53.4%polled, 17s agoBest Yes 85¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $118 (1.18x)
Polymarket
Contract
145
Last price
53.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
85¢
Sell Yes
21.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$118 (1.18x)
Volume
$50
Trade this on Polymarket
135
52.9%
Polymarket 52.9%polled, 17s agoBest Yes 98.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Polymarket
Contract
135
Last price
52.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
98.9¢
Sell Yes
6.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$122
Trade this on Polymarket
150
40%
Polymarket 40%polled, 17s agoBest Yes 64¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $156 (1.56x)
Polymarket
Contract
150
Last price
40%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
64¢
Sell Yes
16¢
$100 on Yes pays
$156 (1.56x)
Volume
$128
Trade this on Polymarket
170
28.5%
Polymarket 28.5%polled, 17s agoBest Yes 56.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $176 (1.76x)
Polymarket
Contract
170
Last price
28.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
56.8¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$176 (1.76x)
Volume
$182
Trade this on Polymarket
165
26.7%
Polymarket 26.7%polled, 17s agoBest Yes 53.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $188 (1.88x)
Polymarket
Contract
165
Last price
26.7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
53.1¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$188 (1.88x)
Volume
$691
Trade this on Polymarket
Show 3 more outcomes
155
26.5%
Polymarket 26.5%polled, 17s agoBest Yes 51¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $196 (1.96x)
Polymarket
Contract
155
Last price
26.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
51¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$196 (1.96x)
Volume
$508
Trade this on Polymarket
160
26%
Polymarket 26%polled, 17s agoBest Yes 51¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $196 (1.96x)
Polymarket
Contract
160
Last price
26%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
51¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$196 (1.96x)
Volume
$597
Trade this on Polymarket
175
5.4%
Polymarket 5.4%polled, 17s agoBest Yes 10¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
175
Last price
5.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
0.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Volume
$188
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: pythdata.app

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • 130
  • 140
  • 115

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
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Spread
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Best ask
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Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Will SpaceX (SPCX) finish week of October 19 above___?". 130 leads at 67.5%. Next is 140 at 60%. $3K has traded across 13 outcomes on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Oct 23, 2026.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Close price for SpaceX (SPCX) on the final day of trading of the week specified in the title (normally Friday) is higher than the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." If the two specified prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve to "No". Closing prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. If SpaceX (SPCX) does not trade at all during the regular session of the final trading day of the week, the market will resolve 50-50. For a standard full trading session, the closing price refers to the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle corresponding to the final minute of regular trading hours on the primary exchange. If the relevant session is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle corresponding to the final minute of that shortened session will be used. If the relevant day has no valid Pyth Close value for the 1-minute candle corresponding to the end of regular trading hours on the primary exchange, the market will use the last valid Pyth price achieved during the regular trading hours of the primary exchange as the effective closing price. If no valid Pyth price exists for that trading day due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption, the official closing price published by the primary exchange on which the listed security trades will be used to determine the closing price for that day. In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed security during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. The target price will be adjusted proportionally to reflect any stock splits. Resolution will be based on the historical price data as shown on Pyth after any adjustments have been applied. The resolution source for this market will be Pyth, specifically the "Close" values for the relevant 1-minute candle for SpaceX (SPCX) available at https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.SPCX%2FUSD.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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