The Prediction Markets

Will the US have more than 100,000 new daily COVID-19 cases before January 1, 2022?

Closed
Jan 8, 2022
Traded
$297K
Venues
Polymarket
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This market has closed

Trading ended on Jan 8, 2022. The prices below are the last ones before it closed and no longer update. Browse open markets

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

  • Polymarket

No outcome is trading right now. Check back when the venues reopen this market.

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: covid.cdc.gov

About this market

Final prediction market prices for "Will the US have more than 100,000 new daily COVID-19 cases before January 1, 2022?". $297K has traded across 0 outcomes on Polymarket. The market closed on Jan 8, 2022.

This is a market on whether there will be a single day after the creation of this market, July 9, 2021, and prior to the resolution date, January 1, 2022, with more than 100,000 recorded COVID-19 cases in the United States. This market will resolve to “Yes" if on any single day prior to the resolution date there are more than 100,000 COVID-19 cases recorded. This market will resolve to “No" if there is no single day the United States records more than 100,000 daily COVID-19 cases according to the resolution source. The resolution source for this market will be https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends_dailytrendscases, the CDC's official count of Coronavirus cases. The resolution source will be reviewed once daily at 8 PM ET. The final check will be on January 8, 2022, 8 PM ET, checking all days from the creation of this market to December 31, 2021. Only daily numbers will be considered. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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