The Prediction Markets

Will there be more than 4 million Ukrainian refugees by March 24?

Closed
Mar 24, 2022
Traded
$166K
Venues
Polymarket
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This market has closed

Trading ended on Mar 24, 2022. The prices below are the last ones before it closed and no longer update. Browse open markets

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

  • Polymarket

No outcome is trading right now. Check back when the venues reopen this market.

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: data2.unhcr.org

About this market

Final prediction market prices for "Will there be more than 4 million Ukrainian refugees by March 24?". $166K has traded across 0 outcomes on Polymarket. The market closed on Mar 24, 2022.

Per the UN, in the first week of the military offensive in Ukraine, "more than a million refugees from Ukraine crossed borders into neighboring countries, and many more are on the move both inside and outside the country. They are in need of protection and support." This market asks if there will be more than 4,000,000 Ukrainian Refugee arrivals between February 24, 2022 and March 24, 2022. If there are 4,000,001 or more Ukrainian refugees as measured by the resolution source by March 24, 2022, 8:00:00 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source to this market will be information provided by https://data2.unhcr.org/en/situations/ukraine. The number featured under the header "Refugee arrivals from Ukraine (since 24 February 2022)*", found in the top right of the resolution source page will be the primary source used to resolve this market. If the resolution source URL changes, the new resolution URL will be used. If the resolution source is unavailable at the resolution time for this market, March 24, 2022, 8:00:00 PM ET, the resolution source will be checked every 12 hours - specifically the csv data will be totaled between February 24 and March 24, 2022, with the final check being on March 31, 2022, 8:00:00 PM ET. If the information remains unavailable at that time, this market will resolve 50-50.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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