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What the markets expect
December 31 72%
Next is 100 to 499 at 52%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.
Odds by venue
Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.
Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 2 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.
- Polymarket
- Kalshi
Outcome
Consensus
Venue prices on a 0–100% scale
Polymarket
Kalshi
Best Yes price
December 3172%72%59¢ bid, 85¢ askpolled, 2 min agoNot listed85¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $118 (1.18x)December 3172%Polymarket 72%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 85¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $118 (1.18x)
December 31
72%
72%
59¢ bid, 85¢ ask
polled, 2 min ago
Not listed
85¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $118 (1.18x)
December 31
72%
Polymarket 72%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 85¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $118 (1.18x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- December 31
- Last price
- 72%
- As of
- Polled 2 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 85¢
- Sell Yes
- 59¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $118 (1.18x)
- Volume
- $3K
100 to 49952%Not listed52%49¢ bid, 55¢ askpolled, 1 min ago55¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $182 (1.82x)100 to 49952%Kalshi 52%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 55¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $182 (1.82x)
100 to 499
52%
Not listed
52%
49¢ bid, 55¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
55¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $182 (1.82x)
100 to 499
52%
Kalshi 52%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 55¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $182 (1.82x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 100 to 499
- Last price
- 52%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 55¢
- Sell Yes
- 49¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $182 (1.82x)
- Volume
- $3K
Michael Cohen35%Not listed35%32¢ bid, 35¢ askpolled, 44s ago35¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $286 (2.86x)Michael Cohen35%Kalshi 35%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 35¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $286 (2.86x)
Michael Cohen
35%
Not listed
35%
32¢ bid, 35¢ ask
polled, 44s ago
35¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $286 (2.86x)
Michael Cohen
35%
Kalshi 35%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 35¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $286 (2.86x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Michael Cohen
- Last price
- 35%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 35¢
- Sell Yes
- 32¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $286 (2.86x)
- Volume
- $21K
October 3130%30%14¢ bid, 46¢ askpolled, 2 min agoNot listed46¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $217 (2.17x)October 3130%Polymarket 30%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 46¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $217 (2.17x)
October 31
30%
30%
14¢ bid, 46¢ ask
polled, 2 min ago
Not listed
46¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $217 (2.17x)
October 31
30%
Polymarket 30%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 46¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $217 (2.17x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- October 31
- Last price
- 30%
- As of
- Polled 2 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 46¢
- Sell Yes
- 14¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $217 (2.17x)
- Volume
- $1K
500 to 99921%Not listed21%16¢ bid, 21¢ askpolled, 1 min ago21¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $476 (4.76x)500 to 99921%Kalshi 21%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 21¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $476 (4.76x)
500 to 999
21%
Not listed
21%
16¢ bid, 21¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
21¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $476 (4.76x)
500 to 999
21%
Kalshi 21%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 21¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $476 (4.76x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 500 to 999
- Last price
- 21%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 21¢
- Sell Yes
- 16¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $476 (4.76x)
- Volume
- $1K
1000 or more19%Not listed19%10¢ bid, 19¢ askpolled, 1 min ago19¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $526 (5.26x)1000 or more19%Kalshi 19%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 19¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $526 (5.26x)
1000 or more
19%
Not listed
19%
10¢ bid, 19¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
19¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $526 (5.26x)
1000 or more
19%
Kalshi 19%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 19¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $526 (5.26x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 1000 or more
- Last price
- 19%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 19¢
- Sell Yes
- 10¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $526 (5.26x)
- Volume
- $1K
John Kiriakou15%Not listed15%13¢ bid, 15¢ askpolled, 44s ago15¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $667 (6.67x)John Kiriakou15%Kalshi 15%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 15¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
John Kiriakou
15%
Not listed
15%
13¢ bid, 15¢ ask
polled, 44s ago
15¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $667 (6.67x)
John Kiriakou
15%
Kalshi 15%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 15¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- John Kiriakou
- Last price
- 15%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 15¢
- Sell Yes
- 13¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $667 (6.67x)
- Volume
- $31K
Josh Wander15%Not listed15%8¢ bid, 16¢ askpolled, 44s ago16¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $625 (6.25x)Josh Wander15%Kalshi 15%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 16¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Josh Wander
15%
Not listed
15%
8¢ bid, 16¢ ask
polled, 44s ago
16¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Josh Wander
15%
Kalshi 15%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 16¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Josh Wander
- Last price
- 15%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 16¢
- Sell Yes
- 8¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $625 (6.25x)
- Volume
- $157
Nicole Daedone15%Not listed15%11¢ bid, 15¢ askpolled, 44s ago15¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $667 (6.67x)Nicole Daedone15%Kalshi 15%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 15¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Nicole Daedone
15%
Not listed
15%
11¢ bid, 15¢ ask
polled, 44s ago
15¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Nicole Daedone
15%
Kalshi 15%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 15¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Nicole Daedone
- Last price
- 15%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 15¢
- Sell Yes
- 11¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $667 (6.67x)
- Volume
- $8K
Larry Householder14%Not listed14%14¢ bid, 21¢ askpolled, 44s ago21¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $476 (4.76x)Larry Householder14%Kalshi 14%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 21¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $476 (4.76x)
Larry Householder
14%
Not listed
14%
14¢ bid, 21¢ ask
polled, 44s ago
21¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $476 (4.76x)
Larry Householder
14%
Kalshi 14%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 21¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $476 (4.76x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Larry Householder
- Last price
- 14%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 21¢
- Sell Yes
- 14¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $476 (4.76x)
- Volume
- $3K
Show 32 more outcomesHide 32 outcomes
Leonard Glenn Francis13%Not listed13%4¢ bid, 13¢ askpolled, 44s ago13¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $769 (7.69x)Leonard Glenn Francis13%Kalshi 13%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 13¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Leonard Glenn Francis
13%
Not listed
13%
4¢ bid, 13¢ ask
polled, 44s ago
13¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Leonard Glenn Francis
13%
Kalshi 13%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 13¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Leonard Glenn Francis
- Last price
- 13%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 13¢
- Sell Yes
- 4¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $769 (7.69x)
- Volume
- $3K
Rachel Cherwitz11%Not listed11%7.8¢ bid, 15¢ askpolled, 44s ago15¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $667 (6.67x)Rachel Cherwitz11%Kalshi 11%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 15¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Rachel Cherwitz
11%
Not listed
11%
7.8¢ bid, 15¢ ask
polled, 44s ago
15¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Rachel Cherwitz
11%
Kalshi 11%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 15¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Rachel Cherwitz
- Last price
- 11%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 15¢
- Sell Yes
- 7.8¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $667 (6.67x)
- Volume
- $7K
Tim Leissner11%Not listed11%5¢ bid, 14¢ askpolled, 44s ago14¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $714 (7.14x)Tim Leissner11%Kalshi 11%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 14¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $714 (7.14x)
Tim Leissner
11%
Not listed
11%
5¢ bid, 14¢ ask
polled, 44s ago
14¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $714 (7.14x)
Tim Leissner
11%
Kalshi 11%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 14¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $714 (7.14x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Tim Leissner
- Last price
- 11%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 14¢
- Sell Yes
- 5¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $714 (7.14x)
- Volume
- $6K
Ghislaine Maxwell10%Not listed10%4.3¢ bid, 10¢ askpolled, 44s ago10¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)Ghislaine Maxwell10%Kalshi 10%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 10¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Ghislaine Maxwell
10%
Not listed
10%
4.3¢ bid, 10¢ ask
polled, 44s ago
10¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Ghislaine Maxwell
10%
Kalshi 10%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 10¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Ghislaine Maxwell
- Last price
- 10%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 10¢
- Sell Yes
- 4.3¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,000 (10.0x)
- Volume
- $81K
Kimberly Guilfoyle10%Not listed10%6¢ bid, 14¢ askpolled, 44s ago14¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $714 (7.14x)Kimberly Guilfoyle10%Kalshi 10%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 14¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $714 (7.14x)
Kimberly Guilfoyle
10%
Not listed
10%
6¢ bid, 14¢ ask
polled, 44s ago
14¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $714 (7.14x)
Kimberly Guilfoyle
10%
Kalshi 10%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 14¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $714 (7.14x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Kimberly Guilfoyle
- Last price
- 10%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 14¢
- Sell Yes
- 6¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $714 (7.14x)
Robin Smith10%Not listed10%5.1¢ bid, 10¢ askpolled, 44s ago10¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)Robin Smith10%Kalshi 10%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 10¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Robin Smith
10%
Not listed
10%
5.1¢ bid, 10¢ ask
polled, 44s ago
10¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Robin Smith
10%
Kalshi 10%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 10¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Robin Smith
- Last price
- 10%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 10¢
- Sell Yes
- 5.1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,000 (10.0x)
- Volume
- $495
Matt Borges9.9%Not listed9.9%1.1¢ bid, 9.9¢ askpolled, 44s ago9.9¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,010 (10.1x)Matt Borges9.9%Kalshi 9.9%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 9.9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,010 (10.1x)
Matt Borges
9.9%
Not listed
9.9%
1.1¢ bid, 9.9¢ ask
polled, 44s ago
9.9¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,010 (10.1x)
Matt Borges
9.9%
Kalshi 9.9%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 9.9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,010 (10.1x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Matt Borges
- Last price
- 9.9%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 9.9¢
- Sell Yes
- 1.1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,010 (10.1x)
- Volume
- $29
Tal Alexander9.9%Not listed9.9%5¢ bid, 9.9¢ askpolled, 44s ago9.9¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,010 (10.1x)Tal Alexander9.9%Kalshi 9.9%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 9.9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,010 (10.1x)
Tal Alexander
9.9%
Not listed
9.9%
5¢ bid, 9.9¢ ask
polled, 44s ago
9.9¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,010 (10.1x)
Tal Alexander
9.9%
Kalshi 9.9%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 9.9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,010 (10.1x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Tal Alexander
- Last price
- 9.9%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 9.9¢
- Sell Yes
- 5¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,010 (10.1x)
- Volume
- $19
Jared Kushner9.7%Not listed9.7%2.8¢ bid, 9.7¢ askpolled, 44s ago9.7¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,031 (10.3x)Jared Kushner9.7%Kalshi 9.7%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 9.7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,031 (10.3x)
Jared Kushner
9.7%
Not listed
9.7%
2.8¢ bid, 9.7¢ ask
polled, 44s ago
9.7¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,031 (10.3x)
Jared Kushner
9.7%
Kalshi 9.7%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 9.7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,031 (10.3x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Jared Kushner
- Last price
- 9.7%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 9.7¢
- Sell Yes
- 2.8¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,031 (10.3x)
- Volume
- $8K
Braden John Karony9%Not listed9%1.1¢ bid, 9¢ askpolled, 44s ago9¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)Braden John Karony9%Kalshi 9%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Braden John Karony
9%
Not listed
9%
1.1¢ bid, 9¢ ask
polled, 44s ago
9¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Braden John Karony
9%
Kalshi 9%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Braden John Karony
- Last price
- 9%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 9¢
- Sell Yes
- 1.1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,111 (11.1x)
- Volume
- $359
Sean Combs9%Not listed9%8.2¢ bid, 9¢ askpolled, 44s ago9¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)Sean Combs9%Kalshi 9%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Sean Combs
9%
Not listed
9%
8.2¢ bid, 9¢ ask
polled, 44s ago
9¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Sean Combs
9%
Kalshi 9%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Sean Combs
- Last price
- 9%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 9¢
- Sell Yes
- 8.2¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,111 (11.1x)
- Volume
- $67K
Torence Hatch8.9%Not listed8.9%4.2¢ bid, 8.9¢ askpolled, 44s ago8.9¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,124 (11.2x)Torence Hatch8.9%Kalshi 8.9%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 8.9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,124 (11.2x)
Torence Hatch
8.9%
Not listed
8.9%
4.2¢ bid, 8.9¢ ask
polled, 44s ago
8.9¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,124 (11.2x)
Torence Hatch
8.9%
Kalshi 8.9%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 8.9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,124 (11.2x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Torence Hatch
- Last price
- 8.9%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 8.9¢
- Sell Yes
- 4.2¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,124 (11.2x)
- Volume
- $6K
Kenneth Petty8.7%Not listed8.7%2.6¢ bid, 8.7¢ askpolled, 44s ago8.7¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,149 (11.5x)Kenneth Petty8.7%Kalshi 8.7%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 8.7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,149 (11.5x)
Kenneth Petty
8.7%
Not listed
8.7%
2.6¢ bid, 8.7¢ ask
polled, 44s ago
8.7¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,149 (11.5x)
Kenneth Petty
8.7%
Kalshi 8.7%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 8.7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,149 (11.5x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Kenneth Petty
- Last price
- 8.7%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 8.7¢
- Sell Yes
- 2.6¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,149 (11.5x)
- Volume
- $10K
Keonne Rodriguez8.3%Not listed8.3%7.3¢ bid, 14¢ askpolled, 44s ago14¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $714 (7.14x)Keonne Rodriguez8.3%Kalshi 8.3%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 14¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $714 (7.14x)
Keonne Rodriguez
8.3%
Not listed
8.3%
7.3¢ bid, 14¢ ask
polled, 44s ago
14¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $714 (7.14x)
Keonne Rodriguez
8.3%
Kalshi 8.3%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 14¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $714 (7.14x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Keonne Rodriguez
- Last price
- 8.3%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 14¢
- Sell Yes
- 7.3¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $714 (7.14x)
- Volume
- $7K
Bill Hwang8%Not listed8%4¢ bid, 8¢ askpolled, 44s ago8¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)Bill Hwang8%Kalshi 8%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Bill Hwang
8%
Not listed
8%
4¢ bid, 8¢ ask
polled, 44s ago
8¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Bill Hwang
8%
Kalshi 8%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Bill Hwang
- Last price
- 8%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 8¢
- Sell Yes
- 4¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,250 (12.5x)
- Volume
- $7K
Bob Menendez8%Not listed8%1.3¢ bid, 8¢ askpolled, 44s ago8¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)Bob Menendez8%Kalshi 8%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Bob Menendez
8%
Not listed
8%
1.3¢ bid, 8¢ ask
polled, 44s ago
8¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Bob Menendez
8%
Kalshi 8%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Bob Menendez
- Last price
- 8%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 8¢
- Sell Yes
- 1.3¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,250 (12.5x)
- Volume
- $4K
Martin Shkreli7.9%Not listed7.9%2.5¢ bid, 7.9¢ askpolled, 44s ago7.9¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,266 (12.7x)Martin Shkreli7.9%Kalshi 7.9%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 7.9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,266 (12.7x)
Martin Shkreli
7.9%
Not listed
7.9%
2.5¢ bid, 7.9¢ ask
polled, 44s ago
7.9¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,266 (12.7x)
Martin Shkreli
7.9%
Kalshi 7.9%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 7.9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,266 (12.7x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Martin Shkreli
- Last price
- 7.9%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 7.9¢
- Sell Yes
- 2.5¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,266 (12.7x)
- Volume
- $25K
Aimee Bock7.5%Not listed7.5%1.1¢ bid, 7.6¢ askpolled, 44s ago7.6¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,316 (13.2x)Aimee Bock7.5%Kalshi 7.5%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 7.6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,316 (13.2x)
Aimee Bock
7.5%
Not listed
7.5%
1.1¢ bid, 7.6¢ ask
polled, 44s ago
7.6¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,316 (13.2x)
Aimee Bock
7.5%
Kalshi 7.5%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 7.6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,316 (13.2x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Aimee Bock
- Last price
- 7.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 7.6¢
- Sell Yes
- 1.1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,316 (13.2x)
- Volume
- $129
Jho Low7%Not listed7%7¢ bid, 15¢ askpolled, 44s ago15¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $667 (6.67x)Jho Low7%Kalshi 7%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 15¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Jho Low
7%
Not listed
7%
7¢ bid, 15¢ ask
polled, 44s ago
15¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Jho Low
7%
Kalshi 7%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 15¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Jho Low
- Last price
- 7%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 15¢
- Sell Yes
- 7¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $667 (6.67x)
- Volume
- $6K
Roger Ver7%Not listed7%3.3¢ bid, 7.4¢ askpolled, 44s ago7.4¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,351 (13.5x)Roger Ver7%Kalshi 7%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 7.4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,351 (13.5x)
Roger Ver
7%
Not listed
7%
3.3¢ bid, 7.4¢ ask
polled, 44s ago
7.4¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,351 (13.5x)
Roger Ver
7%
Kalshi 7%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 7.4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,351 (13.5x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Roger Ver
- Last price
- 7%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 7.4¢
- Sell Yes
- 3.3¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,351 (13.5x)
- Volume
- $4K
Steve Bannon6.9%Not listed6.9%6.4¢ bid, 6.9¢ askpolled, 44s ago6.9¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,449 (14.5x)Steve Bannon6.9%Kalshi 6.9%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 6.9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,449 (14.5x)
Steve Bannon
6.9%
Not listed
6.9%
6.4¢ bid, 6.9¢ ask
polled, 44s ago
6.9¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,449 (14.5x)
Steve Bannon
6.9%
Kalshi 6.9%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 6.9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,449 (14.5x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Steve Bannon
- Last price
- 6.9%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 6.9¢
- Sell Yes
- 6.4¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,449 (14.5x)
- Volume
- $10K
Elizabeth Holmes6.1%Not listed6.1%6.1¢ bid, 9.2¢ askpolled, 44s ago9.2¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,087 (10.9x)Elizabeth Holmes6.1%Kalshi 6.1%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 9.2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,087 (10.9x)
Elizabeth Holmes
6.1%
Not listed
6.1%
6.1¢ bid, 9.2¢ ask
polled, 44s ago
9.2¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,087 (10.9x)
Elizabeth Holmes
6.1%
Kalshi 6.1%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 9.2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,087 (10.9x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Elizabeth Holmes
- Last price
- 6.1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 9.2¢
- Sell Yes
- 6.1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,087 (10.9x)
- Volume
- $15K
Joseph Maldonado6%Not listed6%6¢ bid, 10¢ askpolled, 44s ago10¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)Joseph Maldonado6%Kalshi 6%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 10¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Joseph Maldonado
6%
Not listed
6%
6¢ bid, 10¢ ask
polled, 44s ago
10¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Joseph Maldonado
6%
Kalshi 6%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 10¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Joseph Maldonado
- Last price
- 6%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 10¢
- Sell Yes
- 6¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,000 (10.0x)
- Volume
- $2K
50 to 995%Not listed5%0.6¢ bid, 9.9¢ askpolled, 1 min ago9.9¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,010 (10.1x)50 to 995%Kalshi 5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 9.9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,010 (10.1x)
50 to 99
5%
Not listed
5%
0.6¢ bid, 9.9¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
9.9¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,010 (10.1x)
50 to 99
5%
Kalshi 5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 9.9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,010 (10.1x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 50 to 99
- Last price
- 5%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 9.9¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.6¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,010 (10.1x)
- Volume
- $3K
Edward Snowden5%Not listed5%3¢ bid, 5¢ askpolled, 44s ago5¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)Edward Snowden5%Kalshi 5%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Edward Snowden
5%
Not listed
5%
3¢ bid, 5¢ ask
polled, 44s ago
5¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Edward Snowden
5%
Kalshi 5%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Edward Snowden
- Last price
- 5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 5¢
- Sell Yes
- 3¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,000 (20.0x)
- Volume
- $9K
Julian Assange5%Not listed5%3¢ bid, 6.5¢ askpolled, 44s ago6.5¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,538 (15.4x)Julian Assange5%Kalshi 5%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 6.5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,538 (15.4x)
Julian Assange
5%
Not listed
5%
3¢ bid, 6.5¢ ask
polled, 44s ago
6.5¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,538 (15.4x)
Julian Assange
5%
Kalshi 5%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 6.5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,538 (15.4x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Julian Assange
- Last price
- 5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 6.5¢
- Sell Yes
- 3¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,538 (15.4x)
- Volume
- $5K
Sam Bankman-Fried5%Not listed5%4¢ bid, 6¢ askpolled, 44s ago6¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)Sam Bankman-Fried5%Kalshi 5%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Sam Bankman-Fried
5%
Not listed
5%
4¢ bid, 6¢ ask
polled, 44s ago
6¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Sam Bankman-Fried
5%
Kalshi 5%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Sam Bankman-Fried
- Last price
- 5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 6¢
- Sell Yes
- 4¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,667 (16.7x)
- Volume
- $76K
Nicolás Maduro3%Not listed3%3¢ bid, 4¢ askpolled, 44s ago4¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)Nicolás Maduro3%Kalshi 3%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Nicolás Maduro
3%
Not listed
3%
3¢ bid, 4¢ ask
polled, 44s ago
4¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Nicolás Maduro
3%
Kalshi 3%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Nicolás Maduro
- Last price
- 3%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 4¢
- Sell Yes
- 3¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,500 (25.0x)
- Volume
- $19K
Donald Trump2.3%Not listed2.3%2.3¢ bid, 6.1¢ askpolled, 44s ago6.1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,639 (16.4x)Donald Trump2.3%Kalshi 2.3%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 6.1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,639 (16.4x)
Donald Trump
2.3%
Not listed
2.3%
2.3¢ bid, 6.1¢ ask
polled, 44s ago
6.1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,639 (16.4x)
Donald Trump
2.3%
Kalshi 2.3%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 6.1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,639 (16.4x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Donald Trump
- Last price
- 2.3%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 6.1¢
- Sell Yes
- 2.3¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,639 (16.4x)
- Volume
- $19K
Charlie Javice2%Not listed2%2¢ bid, 5¢ askpolled, 44s ago5¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)Charlie Javice2%Kalshi 2%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Charlie Javice
2%
Not listed
2%
2¢ bid, 5¢ ask
polled, 44s ago
5¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Charlie Javice
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Charlie Javice
- Last price
- 2%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 5¢
- Sell Yes
- 2¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,000 (20.0x)
- Volume
- $11K
Eric Adams1.9%Not listed1.9%1.5¢ bid, 7.3¢ askpolled, 44s ago7.3¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,370 (13.7x)Eric Adams1.9%Kalshi 1.9%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 7.3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,370 (13.7x)
Eric Adams
1.9%
Not listed
1.9%
1.5¢ bid, 7.3¢ ask
polled, 44s ago
7.3¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,370 (13.7x)
Eric Adams
1.9%
Kalshi 1.9%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 7.3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,370 (13.7x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Eric Adams
- Last price
- 1.9%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 7.3¢
- Sell Yes
- 1.5¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,370 (13.7x)
- Volume
- $4K
Derek Chauvin1.5%Not listed1.5%1.5¢ bid, 5.5¢ askpolled, 44s ago5.5¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,818 (18.2x)Derek Chauvin1.5%Kalshi 1.5%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 5.5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,818 (18.2x)
Derek Chauvin
1.5%
Not listed
1.5%
1.5¢ bid, 5.5¢ ask
polled, 44s ago
5.5¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,818 (18.2x)
Derek Chauvin
1.5%
Kalshi 1.5%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 5.5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,818 (18.2x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Derek Chauvin
- Last price
- 1.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 5.5¢
- Sell Yes
- 1.5¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,818 (18.2x)
- Volume
- $93K
Who resolves this market
- Polymarket resolves via:
- UMA optimistic oracle
- Kalshi resolves via:
- Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: White House, New York Times, The New York Times
How the odds have moved
The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.
- December 31
- 100 to 499
- Michael Cohen
Order books
Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.
Kalshi
Kalshi doesn’t list December 31 for this event.
What your stake buys
Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.
$
Buy
Loading both order books…
Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.
About this market
Live prediction market odds for "Will Trump pardon anyone by...?". December 31 leads at 72%. Next is 100 to 499 at 52%. $587K has traded across 42 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 1, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any individual receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for whether a person is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Questions
What does the consensus price mean?
It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.
How is the payout worked out?
A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.
Why do the venues show different prices?
Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.
Is a price gap an arbitrage?
Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.
How fresh are these prices?
Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.
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