The Prediction Markets

xAI Grok score on FrontierMath Benchmark by June 30?

Closed
Feb 28, 2026
Traded
$21K
Venues
Polymarket
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This market has closed

Trading ended on Feb 28, 2026. The prices below are the last ones before it closed and no longer update. Browse open markets

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 161 days ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
25%+
57.5%
Polymarket 57.5%polled, 3874 h agoBest Yes 68¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $147 (1.47x)
Polymarket
Contract
25%+
Last price
57.5%
As of
Polled 161 d ago
Buy Yes
68¢
Sell Yes
47¢
$100 on Yes pays
$147 (1.47x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
30%+
48.5%
Polymarket 48.5%polled, 3874 h agoBest Yes 67¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $149 (1.49x)
Polymarket
Contract
30%+
Last price
48.5%
As of
Polled 161 d ago
Buy Yes
67¢
Sell Yes
30¢
$100 on Yes pays
$149 (1.49x)
Volume
$13K
Trade this on Polymarket
40%+
40%
Polymarket 40%polled, 3874 h agoBest Yes 62¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $161 (1.61x)
Polymarket
Contract
40%+
Last price
40%
As of
Polled 161 d ago
Buy Yes
62¢
Sell Yes
18¢
$100 on Yes pays
$161 (1.61x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
50%+
18%
Polymarket 18%polled, 3874 h agoBest Yes 32¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $313 (3.13x)
Polymarket
Contract
50%+
Last price
18%
As of
Polled 161 d ago
Buy Yes
32¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$313 (3.13x)
Volume
$170
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • 25%+
  • 30%+
  • 40%+

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

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Best bid
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Spread
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Best ask
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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Final prediction market prices for "xAI Grok score on FrontierMath Benchmark by June 30?". 25%+ last traded at 57.5%. Next is 30%+ at 48.5%. $21K has traded across 4 outcomes on Polymarket. The market closed on Feb 28, 2026.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any xAI Grok model achieves the listed score or greater on the FrontierMath Exam by FJune 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve according to the Epoch AI’s Frontier Math benchmarking leaderboard (https://epoch.ai/frontiermath) for Tier 1-3. Studies which are not included in the leaderboard (e.g. https://x.com/EpochAIResearch/status/1945905796904005720) will not be considered. The primary resolution source will be information from EpochAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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