Top of book
ConnectingBest bid
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Spread
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Best ask
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Waiting for the first live quote…
What the markets expect
20+ 94.7%
Next is 80+ at 70%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.
Odds by venue
Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.
Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 4 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.
- Polymarket
- Kalshi
Outcome
Consensus
Venue prices on a 0–100% scale
Polymarket
Kalshi
Best Yes price
20+94.7%92.2%86¢ bid, 98.3¢ askpolled, 2 min agoNot listed98.3¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $102 (1.02x)20+94.7%Polymarket 98.2%polled, 25s agoPolymarket 92.2%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 98.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
20+
94.7%
92.2%
86¢ bid, 98.3¢ ask
polled, 2 min ago
Not listed
98.3¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $102 (1.02x)
20+
94.7%
Polymarket 98.2%polled, 25s agoPolymarket 92.2%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 98.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 20+
- Last price
- 98.2%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 99¢
- Sell Yes
- 97.4¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $101 (1.01x)
- Volume
- $3K
Polymarket
- Contract
- 20+
- Last price
- 92.2%
- As of
- Polled 2 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 98.3¢
- Sell Yes
- 86¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $102 (1.02x)
- Volume
- $3K
80+70%70%69¢ bid, 71¢ askpolled, 4 min agoNot listed71¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $141 (1.41x)80+70%Polymarket 70%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 71¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $141 (1.41x)
80+
70%
70%
69¢ bid, 71¢ ask
polled, 4 min ago
Not listed
71¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $141 (1.41x)
80+
70%
Polymarket 70%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 71¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $141 (1.41x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 80+
- Last price
- 70%
- As of
- Polled 4 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 71¢
- Sell Yes
- 69¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $141 (1.41x)
- Volume
- $11K
40+62.4%33.5%3¢ bid, 64¢ askpolled, 2 min agoNot listed64¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $156 (1.56x)40+62.4%Polymarket 73.5%polled, 25s agoPolymarket 33.5%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 64¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $156 (1.56x)
40+
62.4%
33.5%
3¢ bid, 64¢ ask
polled, 2 min ago
Not listed
64¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $156 (1.56x)
40+
62.4%
Polymarket 73.5%polled, 25s agoPolymarket 33.5%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 64¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $156 (1.56x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 40+
- Last price
- 73.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 79¢
- Sell Yes
- 68¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $127 (1.27x)
- Volume
- $4K
Polymarket
- Contract
- 40+
- Last price
- 33.5%
- As of
- Polled 2 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 64¢
- Sell Yes
- 3¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $156 (1.56x)
- Volume
- $2K
70+62.2%8%5.2¢ bid, 10.8¢ askpolled, 25s agoNot listed10.8¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $926 (9.26x)70+62.2%Polymarket 84.4%polled, 4 min agoPolymarket 8%polled, 25s agoBest Yes 10.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $926 (9.26x)
70+
62.2%
8%
5.2¢ bid, 10.8¢ ask
polled, 25s ago
Not listed
10.8¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $926 (9.26x)
70+
62.2%
Polymarket 84.4%polled, 4 min agoPolymarket 8%polled, 25s agoBest Yes 10.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $926 (9.26x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 70+
- Last price
- 84.4%
- As of
- Polled 4 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 85.4¢
- Sell Yes
- 83.3¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $117 (1.17x)
- Volume
- $17K
Polymarket
- Contract
- 70+
- Last price
- 8%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 10.8¢
- Sell Yes
- 5.2¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $926 (9.26x)
- Volume
- $7K
Above 4562%Not listed62%61¢ bid, 64¢ askpolled, 25s ago64¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $156 (1.56x)Above 4562%Kalshi 62%polled, 25s agoBest Yes 64¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $156 (1.56x)
Above 45
62%
Not listed
62%
61¢ bid, 64¢ ask
polled, 25s ago
64¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $156 (1.56x)
Above 45
62%
Kalshi 62%polled, 25s agoBest Yes 64¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $156 (1.56x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above 45
- Last price
- 62%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 64¢
- Sell Yes
- 61¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $156 (1.56x)
- Volume
- $4
30+61.7%51%13¢ bid, 89¢ askpolled, 2 min agoNot listed89¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $112 (1.12x)30+61.7%Polymarket 93%polled, 25s agoPolymarket 51%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 89¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $112 (1.12x)
30+
61.7%
51%
13¢ bid, 89¢ ask
polled, 2 min ago
Not listed
89¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $112 (1.12x)
30+
61.7%
Polymarket 93%polled, 25s agoPolymarket 51%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 89¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $112 (1.12x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 30+
- Last price
- 93%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 94¢
- Sell Yes
- 92¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $106 (1.06x)
- Volume
- $406
Polymarket
- Contract
- 30+
- Last price
- 51%
- As of
- Polled 2 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 89¢
- Sell Yes
- 13¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $112 (1.12x)
- Volume
- $1K
Above 5058.5%Not listed58.5%58¢ bid, 59¢ askpolled, 25s ago59¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $169 (1.69x)Above 5058.5%Kalshi 58.5%polled, 25s agoBest Yes 59¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $169 (1.69x)
Above 50
58.5%
Not listed
58.5%
58¢ bid, 59¢ ask
polled, 25s ago
59¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $169 (1.69x)
Above 50
58.5%
Kalshi 58.5%polled, 25s agoBest Yes 59¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $169 (1.69x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above 50
- Last price
- 58.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 59¢
- Sell Yes
- 58¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $169 (1.69x)
Above 5548.5%Not listed48.5%48¢ bid, 49¢ askpolled, 25s ago49¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $204 (2.04x)Above 5548.5%Kalshi 48.5%polled, 25s agoBest Yes 49¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $204 (2.04x)
Above 55
48.5%
Not listed
48.5%
48¢ bid, 49¢ ask
polled, 25s ago
49¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $204 (2.04x)
Above 55
48.5%
Kalshi 48.5%polled, 25s agoBest Yes 49¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $204 (2.04x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above 55
- Last price
- 48.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 49¢
- Sell Yes
- 48¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $204 (2.04x)
85+46%46%41¢ bid, 51¢ askpolled, 4 min agoNot listed51¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $196 (1.96x)85+46%Polymarket 46%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 51¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $196 (1.96x)
85+
46%
46%
41¢ bid, 51¢ ask
polled, 4 min ago
Not listed
51¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $196 (1.96x)
85+
46%
Polymarket 46%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 51¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $196 (1.96x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 85+
- Last price
- 46%
- As of
- Polled 4 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 51¢
- Sell Yes
- 41¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $196 (1.96x)
- Volume
- $5K
Above 6044.5%Not listed44.5%44¢ bid, 45¢ askpolled, 25s ago45¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $222 (2.22x)Above 6044.5%Kalshi 44.5%polled, 25s agoBest Yes 45¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $222 (2.22x)
Above 60
44.5%
Not listed
44.5%
44¢ bid, 45¢ ask
polled, 25s ago
45¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $222 (2.22x)
Above 60
44.5%
Kalshi 44.5%polled, 25s agoBest Yes 45¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $222 (2.22x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above 60
- Last price
- 44.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 45¢
- Sell Yes
- 44¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $222 (2.22x)
Show 10 more outcomesHide 10 outcomes
Above 6540.5%Not listed40.5%40¢ bid, 41¢ askpolled, 25s ago41¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $244 (2.44x)Above 6540.5%Kalshi 40.5%polled, 25s agoBest Yes 41¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $244 (2.44x)
Above 65
40.5%
Not listed
40.5%
40¢ bid, 41¢ ask
polled, 25s ago
41¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $244 (2.44x)
Above 65
40.5%
Kalshi 40.5%polled, 25s agoBest Yes 41¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $244 (2.44x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above 65
- Last price
- 40.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 41¢
- Sell Yes
- 40¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $244 (2.44x)
Above 7038%Not listed38%37¢ bid, 38¢ askpolled, 25s ago38¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $263 (2.63x)Above 7038%Kalshi 38%polled, 25s agoBest Yes 38¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $263 (2.63x)
Above 70
38%
Not listed
38%
37¢ bid, 38¢ ask
polled, 25s ago
38¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $263 (2.63x)
Above 70
38%
Kalshi 38%polled, 25s agoBest Yes 38¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $263 (2.63x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above 70
- Last price
- 38%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 38¢
- Sell Yes
- 37¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $263 (2.63x)
- Volume
- $597
Above 7532%Not listed32%31¢ bid, 32¢ askpolled, 25s ago32¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $313 (3.13x)Above 7532%Kalshi 32%polled, 25s agoBest Yes 32¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $313 (3.13x)
Above 75
32%
Not listed
32%
31¢ bid, 32¢ ask
polled, 25s ago
32¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $313 (3.13x)
Above 75
32%
Kalshi 32%polled, 25s agoBest Yes 32¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $313 (3.13x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above 75
- Last price
- 32%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 32¢
- Sell Yes
- 31¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $313 (3.13x)
- Volume
- $2
50+30.5%24.5%1¢ bid, 48¢ askpolled, 2 min agoNot listed46¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $217 (2.17x)50+30.5%Polymarket 32.5%polled, 25s agoPolymarket 24.5%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 46¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $217 (2.17x)
50+
30.5%
24.5%
1¢ bid, 48¢ ask
polled, 2 min ago
Not listed
46¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $217 (2.17x)
50+
30.5%
Polymarket 32.5%polled, 25s agoPolymarket 24.5%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 46¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $217 (2.17x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 50+
- Last price
- 32.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 46¢
- Sell Yes
- 19¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $217 (2.17x)
- Volume
- $5K
Polymarket
- Contract
- 50+
- Last price
- 24.5%
- As of
- Polled 2 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 48¢
- Sell Yes
- 1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $208 (2.08x)
- Volume
- $50
90+30%30%29¢ bid, 31¢ askpolled, 4 min agoNot listed31¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $323 (3.23x)90+30%Polymarket 30%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 31¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $323 (3.23x)
90+
30%
30%
29¢ bid, 31¢ ask
polled, 4 min ago
Not listed
31¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $323 (3.23x)
90+
30%
Polymarket 30%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 31¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $323 (3.23x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 90+
- Last price
- 30%
- As of
- Polled 4 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 31¢
- Sell Yes
- 29¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $323 (3.23x)
- Volume
- $5K
Above 8026%Not listed26%23¢ bid, 26¢ askpolled, 25s ago26¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $385 (3.85x)Above 8026%Kalshi 26%polled, 25s agoBest Yes 26¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $385 (3.85x)
Above 80
26%
Not listed
26%
23¢ bid, 26¢ ask
polled, 25s ago
26¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $385 (3.85x)
Above 80
26%
Kalshi 26%polled, 25s agoBest Yes 26¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $385 (3.85x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above 80
- Last price
- 26%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 26¢
- Sell Yes
- 23¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $385 (3.85x)
- Volume
- $2K
60+25%26%1¢ bid, 51¢ askpolled, 2 min agoNot listed30¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $333 (3.33x)60+25%Polymarket 24%polled, 25s agoPolymarket 26%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 30¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $333 (3.33x)
60+
25%
26%
1¢ bid, 51¢ ask
polled, 2 min ago
Not listed
30¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $333 (3.33x)
60+
25%
Polymarket 24%polled, 25s agoPolymarket 26%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 30¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $333 (3.33x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 60+
- Last price
- 24%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 30¢
- Sell Yes
- 18¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $333 (3.33x)
- Volume
- $4K
Polymarket
- Contract
- 60+
- Last price
- 26%
- As of
- Polled 2 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 51¢
- Sell Yes
- 1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $196 (1.96x)
Above 8523%Not listed23%20¢ bid, 23¢ askpolled, 25s ago23¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $435 (4.35x)Above 8523%Kalshi 23%polled, 25s agoBest Yes 23¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $435 (4.35x)
Above 85
23%
Not listed
23%
20¢ bid, 23¢ ask
polled, 25s ago
23¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $435 (4.35x)
Above 85
23%
Kalshi 23%polled, 25s agoBest Yes 23¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $435 (4.35x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above 85
- Last price
- 23%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 23¢
- Sell Yes
- 20¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $435 (4.35x)
- Volume
- $2K
95+15.5%15.5%13¢ bid, 18¢ askpolled, 4 min agoNot listed18¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $556 (5.56x)95+15.5%Polymarket 15.5%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 18¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $556 (5.56x)
95+
15.5%
15.5%
13¢ bid, 18¢ ask
polled, 4 min ago
Not listed
18¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $556 (5.56x)
95+
15.5%
Polymarket 15.5%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 18¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $556 (5.56x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 95+
- Last price
- 15.5%
- As of
- Polled 4 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 18¢
- Sell Yes
- 13¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $556 (5.56x)
- Volume
- $4K
Above 907%Not listed7%7¢ bid, 8¢ askpolled, 25s ago8¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)Above 907%Kalshi 7%polled, 25s agoBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Above 90
7%
Not listed
7%
7¢ bid, 8¢ ask
polled, 25s ago
8¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Above 90
7%
Kalshi 7%polled, 25s agoBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above 90
- Last price
- 7%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 8¢
- Sell Yes
- 7¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,250 (12.5x)
- Volume
- $229
Who resolves this market
- Polymarket resolves via:
- UMA optimistic oracle
- Kalshi resolves via:
- Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Rotten Tomatoes
How the odds have moved
The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.
- 20+
- 80+
- 40+
Order books
Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.
Kalshi
Kalshi doesn’t list 20+ for this event.
What your stake buys
Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.
$
Buy
Loading both order books…
Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (culture rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.
About this market
Live prediction market odds for "ZERO A.D.: The Birth of Christ · Rotten Tomatoes score". 20+ leads at 94.7%. Next is 80+ at 70%. $78K has traded across 20 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Dec 14, 2026.
Questions
What does the consensus price mean?
It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.
How is the payout worked out?
A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.
Why do the venues show different prices?
Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.
Is a price gap an arbitrage?
Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.
How fresh are these prices?
Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.
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