The Prediction Markets

#2 Artist on Spotify U.S. in 2026?

Closes
Dec 31, 2026, in 2 months
Traded
$181K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Rihanna 62%

Next is Taylor Swift at 42.5%. Polymarket and Kalshi agree within 1 point on each matched outcome.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Rihanna
62%
Polymarket 62%polled, 60s agoBest Yes 64¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $156 (1.56x)
Polymarket
Contract
Rihanna
Last price
62%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
64¢
Sell Yes
60¢
$100 on Yes pays
$156 (1.56x)
Volume
$27K
Trade this on Polymarket
Taylor SwiftArb
42.5%
Polymarket 12%polled, 60s agoPolymarket 0.1%polled, 60s agoPolymarket 81%polled, 60s agoKalshi 77%polled, 60s agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Taylor Swift
Last price
12%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
13¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$769 (7.69x)
Volume
$19K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Taylor Swift
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$413
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Taylor Swift
Last price
81%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
86¢
Sell Yes
76¢
$100 on Yes pays
$116 (1.16x)
Volume
$22K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Taylor Swift
Last price
77%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
78¢
Sell Yes
77¢
$100 on Yes pays
$128 (1.28x)
Volume
$12K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 0.1¢ and selling on Kalshi at 77¢ nets 7690 bps before fees.

DrakeArb
26.9%
Polymarket 80%polled, 60s agoPolymarket 0.1%polled, 60s agoPolymarket 13.5%polled, 60s agoKalshi 14%polled, 60s agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Drake
Last price
80%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
81¢
Sell Yes
79¢
$100 on Yes pays
$123 (1.23x)
Volume
$25K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Drake
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$353
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Drake
Last price
13.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
18¢
Sell Yes
9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$556 (5.56x)
Volume
$14K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Drake
Last price
14%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
14¢
Sell Yes
12¢
$100 on Yes pays
$714 (7.14x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Kalshi at 14¢ and selling on Polymarket at 79¢ nets 6500 bps before fees.

The WeekndArb
8.4%
Polymarket 0.4%polled, 60s agoPolymarket 30%polled, 60s agoPolymarket 0.4%polled, 60s agoKalshi 3%polled, 60s agoBest Yes 0.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $16,667 (167x)
Polymarket
Contract
The Weeknd
Last price
0.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.6¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$16,667 (167x)
Volume
$829
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
The Weeknd
Last price
30%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
40¢
Sell Yes
20¢
$100 on Yes pays
$250 (2.50x)
Volume
$17K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
The Weeknd
Last price
0.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.7¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$14,286 (143x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
The Weeknd
Last price
3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Kalshi at 3¢ and selling on Polymarket at 20¢ nets 1700 bps before fees.

Eminem
4.9%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 60s agoPolymarket 7.5%polled, 60s agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Eminem
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$603
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Eminem
Last price
7.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
14.3¢
Sell Yes
0.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$699 (6.99x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Bad BunnyArb
2.3%
Polymarket 4.1%polled, 60s agoPolymarket 0.1%polled, 60s agoPolymarket 1.1%polled, 60s agoKalshi 4%polled, 60s agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Bad Bunny
Last price
4.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6.8¢
Sell Yes
1.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,471 (14.7x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Bad Bunny
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$351
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Bad Bunny
Last price
1.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1.6¢
Sell Yes
0.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$6,250 (62.5x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Bad Bunny
Last price
4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 0.1¢ and selling on Kalshi at 1¢ nets 90 bps before fees.

Morgan Wallen
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 60s agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
Contract
Morgan Wallen
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Olivia Rodrigo
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 60s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Olivia Rodrigo
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$651
Trade this on Kalshi
Billie Eilish
1.1%
Polymarket 1.1%polled, 60s agoPolymarket 0.1%polled, 60s agoPolymarket 2%polled, 60s agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Billie Eilish
Last price
1.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1.9¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,263 (52.6x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Billie Eilish
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$351
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Billie Eilish
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3.4¢
Sell Yes
0.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,941 (29.4x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Bruno Mars
1.1%
Polymarket 0.5%polled, 60s agoPolymarket 0.6%polled, 60s agoPolymarket 0.6%polled, 60s agoKalshi 3%polled, 60s agoBest Yes 0.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $12,500 (125x)
Polymarket
Contract
Bruno Mars
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.8¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$12,500 (125x)
Volume
$887
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Bruno Mars
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$9,091 (90.9x)
Volume
$627
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Bruno Mars
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Bruno Mars
Last price
3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 3¢.

Show 12 more outcomes
Beyoncé
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 60s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Beyoncé
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$3
Trade this on Kalshi
Chappell Roan
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 60s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Chappell Roan
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$96
Trade this on Kalshi
Ella Langley
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 60s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Ella Langley
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kendrick Lamar
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 60s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Kendrick Lamar
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Noah Kahan
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 60s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Noah Kahan
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$986
Trade this on Kalshi
Ed Sheeran
0.7%
Polymarket 1.2%polled, 60s agoPolymarket 0.1%polled, 60s agoPolymarket 0.6%polled, 60s agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Ed Sheeran
Last price
1.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1.9¢
Sell Yes
0.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,263 (52.6x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Ed Sheeran
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$349
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Ed Sheeran
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$695
Trade this on Polymarket
Ariana Grande
0.4%
Polymarket 0.5%polled, 60s agoPolymarket 0.1%polled, 60s agoPolymarket 0.6%polled, 60s agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Ariana Grande
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.8¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$12,500 (125x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Ariana Grande
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$281
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Ariana Grande
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.9¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$11,111 (111x)
Volume
$902
Trade this on Polymarket
Michael Jackson
0.3%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 60s agoKalshi 1%polled, 60s agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Michael Jackson
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$361
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Michael Jackson
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$62
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Justin Bieber
0.3%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 60s agoPolymarket 0.2%polled, 60s agoPolymarket 0.5%polled, 60s agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Justin Bieber
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$762
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Justin Bieber
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.4¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$25,000 (250x)
Volume
$538
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Justin Bieber
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.8¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$12,500 (125x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Coldplay
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 60s agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Coldplay
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$281
Trade this on Polymarket
Lady Gaga
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 60s agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Lady Gaga
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$281
Trade this on Polymarket
Shakira
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 60s agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Shakira
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$351
Trade this on Polymarket

Possible arbitrage before fees: buy Taylor Swift on Polymarket at 0.1¢, sell on Kalshi at 77¢ (7690 bps). Check the rules below before trading. See all live spreads

Mostly the same bet: one difference

Where they differ

  • Trading closes at different times: Feb 1, 2027, 4:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Dec 31, 2026, 4:59 AM UTC on Kalshi.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: newsroom.spotify.com
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Spotify
Show full rule comparison
  • Trading closes Feb 1, 2027, 4:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Dec 31, 2026, 4:59 AM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Rihanna
  • Taylor Swift
  • Drake

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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Kalshi

Kalshi doesn’t list Rihanna for this event.

What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (culture rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "#2 Artist on Spotify U.S. in 2026?". Rihanna leads at 62%. Next is Taylor Swift at 42.5%. $181K has traded across 22 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Dec 31, 2026.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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