The Prediction Markets

Highest grossing movie in 2026?

Closes
Jan 8, 2027, in 3 months
Traded
$17.8M
Venues
Polymarket
Prices updated
1 h ago
Share

What the markets expect

Spider-Man: Brand New Day 93.8%

Next is Avengers: Doomsday at 5.6%. Only Polymarket lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Spider-Man: Brand New Day 93.8%Avengers: Doomsday 5.6%Dune: Messiah 0.1%Jumanji 3 0.1%Michael 0.1%3 others 0.3%

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 h ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
Spider-Man: Brand New Day
93.8%
Polymarket 93.5%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 95¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $105 (1.05x)
Polymarket
Contract
Spider-Man: Brand New Day
Last price
93.5%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
95¢
Sell Yes
92¢
$100 on Yes pays
$105 (1.05x)
Volume
$718K
Trade this on Polymarket
Avengers: Doomsday
5.6%
Polymarket 5.6%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 5.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,754 (17.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Avengers: Doomsday
Last price
5.6%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
5.7¢
Sell Yes
5.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,754 (17.5x)
Volume
$1.2M
Trade this on Polymarket
Dune: Messiah
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Dune: Messiah
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$732K
Trade this on Polymarket
Jumanji 3
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Jumanji 3
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$1.2M
Trade this on Polymarket
Michael
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Michael
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$1.3M
Trade this on Polymarket
Project Hail Mary
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Project Hail Mary
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$1.4M
Trade this on Polymarket
Scream 7
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Scream 7
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$2.5M
Trade this on Polymarket
Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$821K
Trade this on Polymarket
The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping
0%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$1.2M
Trade this on Polymarket
The Odyssey
0%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
The Odyssey
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$956K
Trade this on Polymarket
Show 4 more outcomes
The Super Mario Galaxy Movie
0%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
The Super Mario Galaxy Movie
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$628K
Trade this on Polymarket
Toy Story 5
0%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Toy Story 5
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$619K
Trade this on Polymarket
Wicked: For Good
0%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Wicked: For Good
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$2.2M
Trade this on Polymarket
Wuthering Heights
0%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Wuthering Heights
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$2.3M
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: boxofficemojo.com

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Spider-Man: Brand New Day
  • Avengers: Doomsday
  • Dune: Messiah

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (culture rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Highest grossing movie in 2026?". Spider-Man: Brand New Day leads at 93.8%. Next is Avengers: Doomsday at 5.6%. $17.8M has traded across 14 outcomes on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 8, 2027.

This market will resolve according to the title of the film with the highest 2026 gross according to the "Gross" column on https://www.boxofficemojo.com/year/2026/?grossesOption=calendarGrosses once data for December 31 is made available. Note: This market is about the movie's domestic calendar gross in 2026 - dates outside of 2026 will not count toward this movie's gross. In the event of an exact tie the film that comes first alphabetically will be considered the winner. If there is no final data available by January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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