The Prediction Markets

Avg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz on April 12?

Closed
Apr 12, 2026
Traded
$74K
Venues
Polymarket
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This market has closed

Trading ended on Apr 12, 2026. The prices below are the last ones before it closed and no longer update. Browse open markets

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 196 days ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
8-11
40.9%
Polymarket 42.5%(40.9% fair)polled, 4704 h agoBest Yes 45¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $222 (2.22x)
Polymarket
Contract
8-11
Last price
42.5%
Fair, margin removed
40.9%
As of
Polled 196 d ago
Buy Yes
45¢
Sell Yes
40¢
$100 on Yes pays
$222 (2.22x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
4-7
26.3%
Polymarket 27.3%(26.3% fair)polled, 4704 h agoBest Yes 31¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $323 (3.23x)
Polymarket
Contract
4-7
Last price
27.3%
Fair, margin removed
26.3%
As of
Polled 196 d ago
Buy Yes
31¢
Sell Yes
23.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$323 (3.23x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Polymarket
12-15
19.7%
Polymarket 20.5%(19.7% fair)polled, 4704 h agoBest Yes 27¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $370 (3.70x)
Polymarket
Contract
12-15
Last price
20.5%
Fair, margin removed
19.7%
As of
Polled 196 d ago
Buy Yes
27¢
Sell Yes
14¢
$100 on Yes pays
$370 (3.70x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
4
7.7%
Polymarket 8%polled, 4704 h agoBest Yes 10.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $980 (9.80x)
Polymarket
Contract
4
Last price
8%
As of
Polled 196 d ago
Buy Yes
10.2¢
Sell Yes
5.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$980 (9.80x)
Volume
$49K
Trade this on Polymarket
16-19
3.9%
Polymarket 4%polled, 4704 h agoBest Yes 5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
16-19
Last price
4%
As of
Polled 196 d ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
20+
1.5%
Polymarket 1.6%polled, 4704 h agoBest Yes 2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
20+
Last price
1.6%
As of
Polled 196 d ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$9K
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • 8-11
  • 4-7
  • 12-15

About this market

Final prediction market prices for "Avg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz on April 12?". 8-11 last traded at 40.9%. Next is 4-7 at 26.3%. $74K has traded across 6 outcomes on Polymarket. The market closed on Apr 12, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for the specified date. Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as the data for the specified date has been published. If no data for the specified date has been published by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day after the end of the specified date, this market will resolve based on data for the most recent date prior to the specified date for which data is available. This market will resolve based on the first publication of data for the specified date. Any subsequent revisions will not be considered. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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