The Prediction Markets

SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12

Closed
Jan 31, 2026
Traded
$1.8M
Venues
Polymarket
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This market has closed

Trading ended on Jan 31, 2026. The prices below are the last ones before it closed and no longer update. Browse open markets

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 161 days ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
June 30
96.1%
Polymarket 96.1%polled, 3883 h agoBest Yes 96.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Polymarket
Contract
June 30
Last price
96.1%
As of
Polled 161 d ago
Buy Yes
96.7¢
Sell Yes
95.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$103 (1.03x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Super Heavy booster explodes?
94.5%
Polymarket 94.5%polled, 3883 h agoBest Yes 95¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $105 (1.05x)
Polymarket
Contract
Super Heavy booster explodes?
Last price
94.5%
As of
Polled 161 d ago
Buy Yes
95¢
Sell Yes
94¢
$100 on Yes pays
$105 (1.05x)
Volume
$19K
Trade this on Polymarket
May 31
92%
Polymarket 92%polled, 3883 h agoBest Yes 93¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $108 (1.08x)
Polymarket
Contract
May 31
Last price
92%
As of
Polled 161 d ago
Buy Yes
93¢
Sell Yes
91¢
$100 on Yes pays
$108 (1.08x)
Volume
$15K
Trade this on Polymarket
Successful splash down?
73%
Polymarket 73%polled, 3883 h agoBest Yes 74¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $135 (1.35x)
Polymarket
Contract
Successful splash down?
Last price
73%
As of
Polled 161 d ago
Buy Yes
74¢
Sell Yes
72¢
$100 on Yes pays
$135 (1.35x)
Volume
$12K
Trade this on Polymarket
May 22
65%
Polymarket 65%polled, 3883 h agoBest Yes 70¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $143 (1.43x)
Polymarket
Contract
May 22
Last price
65%
As of
Polled 161 d ago
Buy Yes
70¢
Sell Yes
60¢
$100 on Yes pays
$143 (1.43x)
Volume
$9K
Trade this on Polymarket
Chopsticks catch Super Heavy booster?
0.4%
Polymarket 0.4%polled, 3883 h agoBest Yes 0.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $25,000 (250x)
Polymarket
Contract
Chopsticks catch Super Heavy booster?
Last price
0.4%
As of
Polled 161 d ago
Buy Yes
0.4¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$25,000 (250x)
Volume
$31K
Trade this on Polymarket
May 15
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 3883 h agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
May 15
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 161 d ago
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$86K
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • June 30
  • Super Heavy booster explodes?
  • May 31

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

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Best bid
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Spread
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Best ask
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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Final prediction market prices for "SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12". June 30 last traded at 96.1%. Next is Super Heavy booster explodes? at 94.5%. $1.8M has traded across 7 outcomes on Polymarket. The market closed on Jan 31, 2026.

This is a market on the outcome of the SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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