The Prediction Markets

What will Satya Nadella say during Microsoft Ignite keynote?

Closes
Dec 1, 2026, in 39 days
Traded
$1K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Azure 89%

Next is Copilot at 82%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
Azure
89%
Kalshi 89%polled, 17s agoBest Yes 89¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $112 (1.12x)
Kalshi
Contract
Azure
Last price
89%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
89¢
Sell Yes
78¢
$100 on Yes pays
$112 (1.12x)
Volume
$325
Trade this on Kalshi
Copilot
82%
Kalshi 82%polled, 17s agoBest Yes 90¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $111 (1.11x)
Kalshi
Contract
Copilot
Last price
82%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
90¢
Sell Yes
81¢
$100 on Yes pays
$111 (1.11x)
Volume
$31
Trade this on Kalshi
Frontier
76.5%
Kalshi 76.5%polled, 17s agoBest Yes 81¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $123 (1.23x)
Kalshi
Contract
Frontier
Last price
76.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
81¢
Sell Yes
72¢
$100 on Yes pays
$123 (1.23x)
Trade this on Kalshi
GitHub
71%
Kalshi 71%polled, 17s agoBest Yes 75¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $133 (1.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
GitHub
Last price
71%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
75¢
Sell Yes
67¢
$100 on Yes pays
$133 (1.33x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Agent 365
70.5%
Kalshi 70.5%polled, 17s agoBest Yes 74¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $135 (1.35x)
Kalshi
Contract
Agent 365
Last price
70.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
74¢
Sell Yes
67¢
$100 on Yes pays
$135 (1.35x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Foundry
69%
Kalshi 69%polled, 17s agoBest Yes 69¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $145 (1.45x)
Kalshi
Contract
Foundry
Last price
69%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
69¢
Sell Yes
59¢
$100 on Yes pays
$145 (1.45x)
Volume
$224
Trade this on Kalshi
Autopilot
51%
Kalshi 51%polled, 17s agoBest Yes 51¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $196 (1.96x)
Kalshi
Contract
Autopilot
Last price
51%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
51¢
Sell Yes
36¢
$100 on Yes pays
$196 (1.96x)
Volume
$92
Trade this on Kalshi
Cowork
49%
Kalshi 49%polled, 17s agoBest Yes 57¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $175 (1.75x)
Kalshi
Contract
Cowork
Last price
49%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
57¢
Sell Yes
47¢
$100 on Yes pays
$175 (1.75x)
Volume
$19
Trade this on Kalshi
Cybersecurity
48%
Kalshi 48%polled, 17s agoBest Yes 56¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $179 (1.79x)
Kalshi
Contract
Cybersecurity
Last price
48%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
56¢
Sell Yes
48¢
$100 on Yes pays
$179 (1.79x)
Volume
$111
Trade this on Kalshi
OpenAI
45%
Kalshi 45%polled, 17s agoBest Yes 45¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $222 (2.22x)
Kalshi
Contract
OpenAI
Last price
45%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
45¢
Sell Yes
29¢
$100 on Yes pays
$222 (2.22x)
Volume
$19
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 6 more outcomes
Anthropic / Claude
36%
Kalshi 36%polled, 17s agoBest Yes 39¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $256 (2.56x)
Kalshi
Contract
Anthropic / Claude
Last price
36%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
39¢
Sell Yes
33¢
$100 on Yes pays
$256 (2.56x)
Trade this on Kalshi
NVIDIA
36%
Kalshi 36%polled, 17s agoBest Yes 39¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $256 (2.56x)
Kalshi
Contract
NVIDIA
Last price
36%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
39¢
Sell Yes
33¢
$100 on Yes pays
$256 (2.56x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Sovereign Cloud
36%
Kalshi 36%polled, 17s agoBest Yes 52¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $192 (1.92x)
Kalshi
Contract
Sovereign Cloud
Last price
36%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
52¢
Sell Yes
36¢
$100 on Yes pays
$192 (1.92x)
Volume
$86
Trade this on Kalshi
Mistral
21.5%
Kalshi 21.5%polled, 17s agoBest Yes 26¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $385 (3.85x)
Kalshi
Contract
Mistral
Last price
21.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
26¢
Sell Yes
17¢
$100 on Yes pays
$385 (3.85x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Scout
17%
Kalshi 17%polled, 17s agoBest Yes 27¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $370 (3.70x)
Kalshi
Contract
Scout
Last price
17%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
27¢
Sell Yes
17¢
$100 on Yes pays
$370 (3.70x)
Volume
$33
Trade this on Kalshi
Event does not qualify
3%
Kalshi 3%polled, 17s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Event does not qualify
Last price
3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$92
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Microsoft Corporation Investor Events

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Azure
  • Copilot
  • Frontier

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

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Best bid
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Best ask
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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "What will Satya Nadella say during Microsoft Ignite keynote?". Azure leads at 89%. Next is Copilot at 82%. $1K has traded across 16 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Dec 1, 2026.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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