The Prediction Markets

Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by...?

Closed
Dec 31, 2026
Traded
$69.8M
Venues
Polymarket
Share

This market has closed

Trading ended on Dec 31, 2026. The prices below are the last ones before it closed and no longer update. Browse open markets

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 223 days ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
December 31
100%
Polymarket 100%polled, 5373 h ago
Polymarket
Contract
December 31
Last price
100%
As of
Polled 223 d ago
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
99.9¢
Volume
$5.5M
Trade this on Polymarket
June 30
100%
Polymarket 100%polled, 5373 h ago
Polymarket
Contract
June 30
Last price
100%
As of
Polled 223 d ago
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
99.9¢
Volume
$5.3M
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle

How the odds have moved

The top 2 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • December 31
  • June 30

About this market

Final prediction market prices for "Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by...?". December 31 last traded at 100%. Next is June 30 at 100%. $69.8M has traded across 2 outcomes on Polymarket. The market closed on Jun 30, 2026.

If Iran halts or severely restricts international maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official governmental information, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

More ai_tech markets

See all ai_tech markets